EURUSD remains near ten-month lows amid a strong US dollar

The EURUSD pair is undergoing a correction after a series of declines amid continued support for the US dollar and expectations around upcoming Fed decisions. The rate currently stands at 1.1426. Find out more in our analysis for 16 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is hovering near ten-month lows
• Higher energy prices have heightened concerns about inflation in the US
• The market is virtually certain that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting
• EURUSD forecast for 16 March 2026: 1.1305

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting after falling for four consecutive trading sessions. Reports that the US is forming an international coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz reduced demand for safe-haven currencies. However, the US dollar remains supported by fundamental factors.

The EURUSD pair is hovering near its ten-month lows. Rising energy prices have fuelled concerns about inflation in the US and thereby reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market has little doubt that the regulator will hold interest rates steady at the upcoming meeting.

Traders are primarily focused on inflation risks and the outlook for global economic growth amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, market participants believe that the scope for a significant change in the current monetary policy trajectory of the world’s major central banks remains extremely limited.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair continues to move within a descending channel, indicating that sellers remain in control. Buyers have been unable to gain a foothold above the EMA-65, so bearish pressure remains persistent. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a continued decline, with the nearest target at 1.1305.

The technical picture still favours sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bearish crossover, signalling a potential strengthening of the downward momentum. A decisive breakout below the local support level and consolidation below 1.1405 would further confirm the main scenario. Such a signal would indicate increased selling pressure and open the way for a further decline.

An alternative scenario suggests a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a consolidation above 1.1505. This scenario would signal weakening bearish pressure and increase the likelihood of a corrective rebound towards 1.1645.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1570 and 1.1650
• Key support levels: 1.1430 and 1.1400

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 1.1405 would confirm continued downward momentum and create conditions for opening short positions. The downside potential is about 100 pips with a risk of roughly 30 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3.

• Take Profit: 1.1305
• Stop Loss: 1.1435

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 1.1505 may indicate a corrective wave. In this case, the pair could test the next resistance area.

• Take Profit: 1.1635
• Stop Loss: 1.1465

Risk factors

A possible consolidation of the EURUSD pair above 1.1505 would pose a risk to the downside scenario, indicating easing selling pressure. In this case, a corrective rebound and a test of higher resistance levels would become more likely.

Summary

The fundamental backdrop suggests the US dollar remains supported, limiting EURUSD’s upside and keeping downside risks in place. Today’s EURUSD forecast indicates persistent bearish pressure and the likelihood of continued declines towards 1.1305, provided the price consolidates below the local support level at 1.1425.

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