EURUSD cheers lower risk appetite and awaits Fed news

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1473, with investors focused on the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision and comments. Find more details in our analysis for 17 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair remains in a downtrend and awaits news from the Federal Reserve
• Easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz slightly reduced demand for the US dollar
• EURUSD forecast for 17 March 2026: 1.1410

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate was around 1.1473 on Tuesday. Investors continue to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict and volatile oil prices on the economy and inflation.

The US dollar edged lower the day before as a dip in oil prices partially relieved inflation concerns. This followed reports that several tankers had safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is allowing Iranian oil exports to continue through the Strait. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump urged other countries to support measures to ensure shipping security in the region.

Market focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged, but the key will be the Fed’s signal regarding higher energy prices and their impact on inflation and borrowing costs.

The outlook for EURUSD is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair remains in a downtrend. After consolidating in late February around 1.1760–1.1830, the pair turned lower and formed a series of lower highs and lower lows. Since early March, selling pressure has intensified, pushing quotes down to the 1.1410 area, where a weak rebound is now developing.

Current price action appears to be a corrective move within the broader decline: the pair is holding at the bottom of Bollinger Bands, with the bands pointing downwards. Indicators also show no signs of a reversal; MACD remains in negative territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator is moving out of overbought territory. All of this may signal that the rebound is losing steam.

The nearest resistance level is located in the 1.1540–1.1600 zone, while the support level lies around 1.1410. As long as the pair remains below resistance, the base case is a continued decline with a risk of fresh lows.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downtrend
• Key resistance levels: 1.1540 and 1.1600
• Key support levels: 1.1410 and 1.1380

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 1.1410 would confirm a continued downward move after the corrective pullback. Selling pressure remains amid a resilient dollar and Fed expectations.

• Take Profit: 1.1320
• Stop Loss: 1.1460

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 1.1505 may signal a corrective rise, with the potential to test the 1.1540–1.1600 zone.

• Take Profit: 1.1585
• Stop Loss: 1.1465

Risk factors

Downside risks diminish if the 1.1410 support level holds and the price returns above 1.1505. In this case, selling pressure would ease and the market could shift into a deeper correction.

Summary

The EURUSD pair has paused ahead of key news. The EURUSD forecast for today, 17 March 2026, suggests a renewed decline towards 1.1410.

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