EURUSD pulls back as the Fed revises its outlook

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure after a failed attempt to hold above a key resistance level amid strengthening US dollar positions. The rate currently stands at 1.1460. Find out more in our analysis for 19 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged
• The US dollar gained support on hawkish rhetoric from the regulator
• The Fed will not cut rates without inflation slowing
• EURUSD forecast for 19 March 2026: 1.1345

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting after declining in the previous trading session. Buyers failed to gain a foothold above the 1.1535 resistance level, indicating continued pressure on the pair. The US dollar found support as the Fed turned more hawkish. As expected, the regulator kept the policy rate unchanged, citing uncertainty over the economic consequences of the conflict with Iran and increased inflation risks.

Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve would not consider a rate cut without clear progress in slowing US inflation. At the same time, the Fed still allows for one rate cut this year and another in 2027, which matches December expectations. The Federal Reserve also revised its inflation forecasts, raising the 2027 estimate to 2.2%, while leaving the 2028 forecast unchanged at 2.0%.

Macroeconomic data further supported the US dollar. US producer prices rose 0.7% in February, above expectations of 0.3%. In January, the figure increased by 0.5%. The stronger data reflects persistent inflation pressure and reduces the likelihood of a near-term shift towards monetary easing.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is falling after breaking below the lower boundary of a corrective ascending channel, signalling renewed downward movement. The price has settled below the EMA-65, confirming continued bearish momentum. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests further decline with a target at 1.1345.

The technical picture remains in favour of sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator turned lower after bouncing from overbought territory, indicating a new downside momentum. A retest of the broken channel’s lower boundary would add to pressure and confirm bears’ control. A breakout and consolidation below 1.1395 would be an additional signal supporting the bearish scenario, pointing to further selling pressure.

An alternative scenario suggests a return above the channel’s upper boundary with consolidation above 1.1545. This would signal weakening selling pressure and increase the likelihood of an upside correction.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1495 and 1.1545
• Key support levels: 1.1405 and 1.1345

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 1.1445 would confirm continued downward movement and create conditions for opening short positions. The potential profit at the take-profit level is 100 pips, while potential losses are capped at 50 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:2.

• Take Profit: 1.1345
• Stop Loss: 1.1495

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A strong rise and consolidation above 1.1545 may indicate renewed bullish pressure and an upward correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1655
• Stop Loss: 1.1495

Risk factors

Downside risks for the EURUSD pair are linked to a possible softening of Fed rhetoric or signs of slowing US inflation, which could weaken support for the US dollar. An additional factor would be a breakout above 1.1545, indicating easing selling pressure and increasing the likelihood of a stronger upward correction.

Summary

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure amid the Fed’s hawkish stance and persistent US inflation, which supports the US dollar. Today’s EURUSD forecast indicates continued downside pressure with a high probability of further decline towards 1.1345 if the price remains below key resistance levels.

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