EURUSD has all the data and is now analysing it

The EURUSD pair is in a mild correction near 1.1555. Investors need time to factor in all decisions from global central banks. Find more details in our analysis for 20 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair shifted into a correction phase after a strong rally the day before
• The Federal Reserve will not cut rates until there are signs that inflation is slowing
• EURUSD forecast for 20 March 2026: 1.1617

Fundamental analysis

On Friday, the EURUSD pair is correcting from a local peak and slipping to 1.1555. Pressure on the US dollar intensified a day earlier amid more hawkish signals from other major central banks. By Friday, the situation has stabilised somewhat.

The ECB, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England kept rates unchanged while signalling a bias towards tighter policy due to inflation risks linked to rising oil prices. Markets are already pricing in the possibility of rate hikes in the eurozone and the UK this year, with the Bank of Japan expected to continue normalising policy.

Earlier in the week, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates for the second consecutive time, and expectations for tightening also increased in New Zealand.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, held rates steady but made it clear it will not lower them until there are sustained signs that inflation is easing.

Against this backdrop, the US dollar remains under pressure overall.

The outlook for EURUSD is mixed.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that after a sharp decline in early March, the price formed a local low around 1.1407, followed by a recovery. The move higher is corrective and remains within a range capped by the resistance level near 1.1617 and supported in the 1.1400–1.1450 area.

The price is gradually forming higher lows, suggesting an attempt at a reversal, but there is no sustainable uptrend yet. Quotes are hovering near the middle Bollinger Band, reflecting a balance of forces and a lack of strong momentum.

Indicators confirm easing downward pressure: MACD is moving out of negative territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, which may limit further upside and increase the likelihood of a short-term pullback.

Overall, the market remains in a consolidation phase. A sustained breakout above 1.1617 would improve the odds of further recovery, while a rebound from the resistance level could send the price back towards 1.1500 and then to the lower boundary of the range.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: consolidation with a corrective rebound
• Key resistance levels: 1.1617 and 1.1655
• Key support levels: 1.1500 and 1.1405

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A sustained breakout above 1.1617 would confirm a continued recovery move within the range and strengthen buyers’ positions. In this case, the target may be the 1.1655 area. The potential move is about 40–60 pips with a risk of around 30–40 pips.

• Take Profit: 1.1655
• Stop Loss: 1.1560

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A rebound from the resistance level followed by a breakout below 1.1500 would increase selling pressure and signal a return to the lower boundary of the range. In this case, the price could test the 1.1405 area.

• Take Profit: 1.1405
• Stop Loss: 1.1565

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish EURUSD scenario include a possible strengthening of the dollar on the back of a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and persistent US inflation risks. Additional downside pressure could come from profit-taking after the corrective rebound. At the same time, further hawkish signals from the ECB and other central banks could support the euro and increase the likelihood of a breakout above the resistance level.

Summary

The EURUSD pair rallied and then paused. The forecast for today, 20 March 2026, does not rule out attempts to gain a foothold above 1.1617.

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