EURUSD remains under pressure due to inflation risks

The EURUSD rate is showing a corrective decline after testing the key resistance level against a mixed fundamental backdrop. The rate currently stands at 1.1607. Find more details in our analysis for 24 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US postponed strikes on Iran, but Tehran denied that negotiations took place, which allowed the US dollar to recover partially
• Risks of faster inflation are fuelling expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy and are capping EURUSD growth
• Easing tensions in the Middle East may weaken inflationary pressures
• EURUSD forecast for 24 March 2026: 1.1745

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting downwards after surging in the previous session. Buyers tested the key resistance level at 1.1645. A confident breakout above this level will open the way for a move towards 1.1745.

The US dollar came under pressure after reports that Washington had postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, citing productive negotiations with Tehran. However, the Iranian side later denied this information, which allowed the US currency to partially recover its gains.

Easing tensions in the Middle East could lead to a recovery in oil production in the region. The speed of this process will depend on the willingness of shipping companies to resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz. An end to hostilities could weaken inflationary pressures caused by the conflict. In the short term, risks of faster inflation remain, fuelling expectations of tighter Fed policy and, as a result, capping EURUSD growth.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair continues to rise within a stable bullish channel, while buyers are confidently holding support at 1.1570. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests an upward move with a target at 1.1745 if the price rebounds from the lower boundary of the channel.

The technical picture remains bullish. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved out of oversold territory and formed a bullish crossover, indicating stronger buying pressure and the potential for a new bullish momentum. A confident breakout above the 1.1645 resistance level would further confirm the upside scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests a decline below 1.1560. In this case, buyers’ positions will weaken, which may trigger a deeper correction towards 1.1495.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: M15 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1640 and 1.1745
• Key support levels: 1.1570 and 1.1495

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 1.1645 would confirm a new upward wave and create conditions for opening long positions. The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:4. The potential profit upon reaching the take-profit target is 100 pips, while possible losses are limited to 25 pips.

• Take Profit: 1.1745
• Stop Loss: 1.1620

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below a local support level with consolidation below 1.1560 would increase selling pressure and trigger a deeper decline.

• Take Profit: 1.1500
• Stop Loss: 1.1580

Risk factors

Risks of faster inflation are strengthening expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, which is capping EURUSD gains. An additional pressure factor remains the partial recovery of the US dollar after the denial of information about negotiations with Iran.

Summary

The fundamental backdrop remains mixed; however, inflation risks and expectations of tighter Fed policy are limiting the pair’s upside. EURUSD technical analysis suggests continued upward momentum with potential for growth towards 1.1745, provided the 1.1570 support level holds.

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