EURUSD may edge higher: fears about US prices have eased

The EURUSD pair rose to 1.1603. A local reduction in tensions in the Middle East is encouraging the market. More details are in our analysis for 25 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is in positive territory amid lower tensions in the Middle East
• Inflation concerns worldwide are easing and removing part of the pressure from the market
• EURUSD forecast for 25 March 2026: 1.1650

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is attempting to rise gradually and stands at 1.1603 in the middle of the week. The US dollar remains under pressure amid reports of possible US-Iran talks on settling the conflict.

Donald Trump stated that Iran had allegedly made a “gesture of goodwill” within discussions related to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The media also report that Washington is considering a one-month truce, while, according to The New York Times, a 15-point settlement plan was sent to Iran.

At the same time, the market remains sceptical: Tehran denies that any negotiations are taking place, while the Gulf states declare their readiness to support military action against Iran.

Against this backdrop, oil prices are falling, which is partly easing inflation concerns and pressure on the markets.

Federal Reserve official Michael Barr noted that the regulator may need to keep rates at elevated levels for longer to fight inflation.

The EURUSD forecast remains moderate.

Technical outlook

The H4 chart for EURUSD shows that after declining at the beginning of March, the market formed a local bottom around 1.1400, from which a recovery began. Before that, the pair had been consistently posting lower highs and lower lows, which pointed to sustained downward momentum. However, near the 1.1400 area, sellers weakened their pressure, and the market moved into a corrective phase.

Current dynamics are developing within a sideways range of approximately 1.1450–1.1650. The price is gradually forming higher lows, which is an attempt at a reversal, but growth remains limited. The 1.1640–1.1660 area acts as strong resistance, with pullbacks emerging there repeatedly. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, which reflects lower volatility and a transition to consolidation.

Indicators confirm a neutral-corrective picture. MACD has moved into positive territory, but momentum remains weak, while the stochastic is fluctuating in the upper part of the range, signalling the risk of local overbought conditions. Overall, the market remains in an accumulation phase. A breakout of 1.1650 may open the way for further growth, while a return below 1.1500 will increase pressure and restore the decline scenario.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: neutral-corrective
• Key resistance levels: 1.1650 and 1.1745
• Key support levels: 1.1500 and 1.1450

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1650 will confirm an exit from the accumulation range and the development of an upward move. This will create conditions for continued growth amid a weaker dollar.

• Take Profit: 1.1745
• Stop Loss: 1.1605

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of support at 1.1500 will increase pressure from sellers and point to a return to the downward scenario with a test of the lower boundary of the range.

• Take Profit: 1.1450
• Stop Loss: 1.1555

Risk factors

Risks to growth are linked to the persistence of hawkish Fed rhetoric and a possible strengthening of the dollar. An additional factor remains geopolitics: a denial of negotiations with Iran may restore demand for safe-haven assets and limit the pair’s recovery.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is rising in a limited way within the accumulation phase. The EURUSD forecast for today, 25 March 2026, does not rule out a continued rise towards 1.1650.

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