Unemployment in the US is rising, but EURUSD is falling

The expected rise in US unemployment is not preventing the USD from strengthening, with the EURUSD pair testing the 1.1560 mark. Find more details in our analysis for 26 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 205 thousand, projected at 211 thousand
• US continuing jobless claims: previously at 1.857 million, projected at 1.860 million
• EURUSD forecast for 26 March 2026: 1.1465

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the price is forming a downward wave and trading around 1.1560.

US initial jobless claims reflect the number of people who filed claims for the first time during the previous week. The indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment. The forecast for 26 March 2026 suggests the claims may rise to 211 thousand from 205 thousand previously. The change is not critical, but better-than-expected data, together with other US macroeconomic data, may provide additional support for the USD.

US continuing jobless claims reflect the total number of people who have reapplied for benefits. Fundamental analysis for 26 March 2026 shows that the number of claims is projected to rise to 1.860 million. Compared to the previous period, the forecast does not look positive for the US dollar. The actual reading may differ from the forecast, but if it comes in better than the previous one, it may become a trigger for USD strengthening.

Despite rising unemployment in the US, the USD remains resilient and is strengthening due to the energy crisis.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, it continues its downward movement following this signal, with a potential downside target at 1.1465. A breakout below this level would open the door for a continued downtrend.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario. Since the quotes remain within a descending channel, they may form a corrective wave and test the resistance level around 1.1635 before moving lower.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1635 and 1.1753
• Key support levels: 1.1465 and 1.1410

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below 1.1465 would confirm waning upward movement and create conditions for a new downward wave amid USD strengthening.

• Take Profit: 1.1410
• Stop Loss: 1.1485

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 1.1635 resistance level would strengthen buying pressure and indicate a continued upward wave.

• Take Profit: 1.1753
• Stop Loss: 1.1600

Risk factors

The risks to a decline are linked to a possible weakening of the dollar amid unemployment statistics. Geopolitics remains an additional factor, with the conflict in the Middle East potentially strengthening demand for safe-haven assets while bypassing the USD.

Summary

Rising unemployment in the US is not preventing the USD from strengthening against the euro. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards 1.1465.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.