EURUSD on the verge of a breakout: will 1.1520 hold

The EURUSD rate is stabilising after a corrective decline amid revised expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The rate currently stands at 1.1543. Discover more in our analysis for 27 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US dollar strengthened amid expectations about the impact of geopolitics on oil, inflation, and economic growth
• US initial jobless claims came in at 210 thousand
• Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB is ready to act at any meeting to contain inflation
• EURUSD forecast for 27 March 2026: 1.1670

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate started to recover after declining for three consecutive trading sessions. Sellers tested the key support level at 1.1520, but buyers remain in control and are preventing the pair from consolidating below this mark.

The US dollar strengthened amid growing uncertainty around the conflict in the Middle East. Investors are assessing the potential impact of the situation on oil prices, inflation, and global economic growth, which is driving demand for safe-haven assets and supporting the US dollar.

Expectations for US monetary policy have been revised significantly. Markets are pricing in the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by December at around 50%, whereas expectations of two rate cuts during the year had previously prevailed. The stable labour market is also providing additional support for the dollar, with US initial jobless claims coming in at 210 thousand, the figure matched forecasts and remained at the previous week’s level, confirming employment stability.

In the eurozone, the regulator’s rhetoric has also become more hawkish. Markets expect two to three rate hikes by the end of the year after signals from ECB President Christine Lagarde about readiness to act at any meeting to curb inflation caused by energy shocks.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel, but sellers continue to hold the price below the EMA-65, indicating persistent pressure from bears. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests an upward move with a target at 1.1670 if the price rebounds from the lower boundary of the channel.

Overall, the technical picture remains bullish. The Stochastic Oscillator has exited oversold territory and formed a bullish crossover, indicating continued upside potential and the likely completion of the downward correction. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending corrective channel, with quotes consolidating above 1.1555, would be an additional signal of strengthening for the pair.

An alternative scenario suggests a stronger decline. A breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and price consolidation below 1.1505 will open the way for a deeper bearish correction and stronger selling pressure.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1575 and 1.1640
• Key support levels: 1.1520 and 1.1455

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1555 would indicate a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending corrective channel and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1670
• Stop Loss: 1.1515

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of the channel’s lower boundary and consolidation below 1.1505 would increase selling pressure and indicate a continued downward movement.

• Take Profit: 1.1445
• Stop Loss: 1.1545

Risk factors

The main risk to EURUSD growth is linked to further strengthening of expectations for Fed policy tightening, which may lead to additional strengthening of the US dollar and pressure on the pair. An additional negative factor will be a breakout of the 1.1505 level, which will strengthen bearish sentiment and cancel the current upside scenario.

Summary

The EURUSD rate is hovering above 1.1520, but stronger expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate and the resilience of the US economy continue to support the US dollar, limiting the pair’s upside potential even amid more hawkish ECB rhetoric. EURUSD technical analysis suggests upward movement could continue towards 1.1670 if support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel holds. At the same time, a breakout and consolidation below the 1.1505 level will cancel the bullish scenario and strengthen selling pressure, opening the way for a deeper correction.

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