EURUSD remains under pressure amid geopolitical risks

The EURUSD pair is correcting upwards after declining for four consecutive trading sessions, with the rate currently at 1.1512. Find out more in our analysis for 30 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US is increasing its military presence and considering the possibility of prolonged ground operations in Iran
• Rising oil prices are fuelling inflation expectations
• The US dollar is receiving fundamental support from expectations of hawkish Federal Reserve monetary policy
• EURUSD forecast for 30 March 2026: 1.1450

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar is bolstered by demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. The conflict in the Middle East has entered its fifth week, with no signs of an imminent end. Reports that the US is preparing for possible prolonged ground operations in Iran after deploying additional forces are increasing risks, which could pressure the EURUSD rate in the medium term.

Sellers remain in control, but to confirm the downward momentum, the market must break the local low and consolidate below the 1.1410 level. Failure to realise this scenario will increase the likelihood of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming, which may signal a transition to an upward correction.

Rising oil prices, driven by the escalating conflict, are boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain hawkish monetary policy. Markets are pricing in the probability of an additional interest rate hike this year, which is supporting the US dollar.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is rebounding from the EMA-65, indicating persistent selling pressure. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a downward move with a target at 1.1450 if the price rebounds from the upper boundary of the bearish channel.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved out of oversold territory and is approaching the descending resistance line, confirming the potential for a renewed decline and the formation of a new bearish momentum. A breakout below the local support level, with the price consolidating below 1.1485, would further confirm the decline.

An alternative scenario suggests an upward move if the price breaks above the upper boundary of the descending channel. Consolidation above the 1.1535 level will open the way to growth and may lead to the formation of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1525 and 1.1565
• Key support levels: 1.1485 and 1.1445

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 1.1505 would indicate a breakout below the local support level and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1445
• Stop Loss: 1.1530

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of the upper boundary of the bearish channel and consolidation above 1.1535 would increase bullish pressure and indicate the formation of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.

• Take Profit: 1.1580
• Stop Loss: 1.1505

Risk factors

The risks to the EURUSD downside scenario are linked to a failure to break the local low and consolidate below 1.1410, which increases the likelihood of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming. An additional risk factor is a possible breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidation above 1.1535, which will open the way to growth.

Summary

Fundamental factors are supporting the US dollar; however, to extend its decline, the EURUSD pair needs to settle below 1.1410. Otherwise, the risk of an upward reversal will increase. EURUSD technical analysis indicates a predominantly bearish scenario with downside potential towards 1.1450. However, a breakout of the 1.1535 level would signal a reversal and a shift to growth.

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