EURUSD in the zone of uncertainty: the market is waiting for a trigger

The EURUSD rate is holding within a Triangle pattern, signalling that a resolution is approaching. The current quote is 1.1564. More details are in our analysis for 1 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Failure to consolidate above 1.1615 increases the risk of a renewed downward impulse
• Donald Trump stated that the conflict may end within two to three weeks
• The market remains cautious amid the deployment of additional US troops to the region
• EURUSD forecast for 1 April 2026: 1.1465

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate has continued to strengthen for the second consecutive trading session. On the daily chart, quotes are forming a Triangle pattern, which points to contracting volatility. If buyers fail to consolidate above the 1.1615 level, the probability of a renewed downward impulse will increase.

Despite Donald Trump’s statements about a possible end to the conflict within two to three weeks, market participants remain cautious. The deployment of additional US troops to the region and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz are supporting geopolitical tension.

The Fed Chair noted that long-term inflation expectations remain contained. This is easing fears of a sharp rise in inflation amid higher energy prices. As a result, pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy is decreasing, especially given the limited effectiveness of the regulator’s tools against supply shocks, which may limit EURUSD growth.

Technical outlook

EURUSD quotes have consolidated above the EMA-65 line, which signals stronger pressure from buyers. At the same time, the price has reached the upper boundary of the downward channel and remains squeezed within a Triangle pattern, which points to a high probability of an imminent impulsive move. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a resumption of the decline with a target at 1.1465.

The technical picture overall remains on the side of sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the downward resistance line and at the same time forming a signal from the overbought zone, which is increasing the risks of a correction downwards. A breakout of the lower boundary of the upward corrective channel with consolidation below 1.1535 will confirm the decline scenario.

The alternative scenario suggests continued growth. A breakout of the upper boundary of the downward channel and consolidation of the price above 1.1605 will open the way for the Triangle pattern to play out with a move towards higher target levels.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1580 and 1.1660
• Key support levels: 1.1525 and 1.1465

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation of quotes below 1.1535 will indicate a breakout of the lower boundary of the bullish channel and will accelerate the fall in quotes towards the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern.

• Take Profit: 1.1570
• Stop Loss: 1.1465

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of resistance with consolidation above 1.1615 will strengthen pressure from bulls and indicate a breakout of the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern.

• Take Profit: 1.1745
• Stop Loss: 1.1565

Risk factors

The risks to the decline scenario increase if the upper boundary of the downward channel breaks and the price consolidates above 1.1605, which may lead to the development of an upward impulse. Additional support for EURUSD growth may come from lower geopolitical tension or more dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric, which may increase pressure on the US dollar.

Summary

The EURUSD rate retains downside potential in the absence of confident consolidation above 1.1615, despite a restrained neutral fundamental backdrop. EURUSD technical analysis points to the probability of a decline in quotes towards 1.1465, provided the 1.1535 level breaks.

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