The ECB is ready to raise rates: what awaits EURUSD in the coming days

The EURUSD rate has stalled ahead of the release of US employment data. After falling, quotes are forming a correction and are hovering around the 1.1530 level. Find out more in our analysis for 3 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at -92 thousand, projected at 65 thousand
• The euro received strong support from unexpectedly hawkish rhetoric from the European Central Bank
• The Federal Reserve is maintaining a more dovish stance
• EURUSD forecast for 3 April 2026: 1.1580

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the price is forming a correction after yesterday’s decline and is trading around 1.1530.

The euro received strong support from unexpectedly hawkish rhetoric from the ECB, as members of the Governing Council began to publicly discuss the inevitability of an interest rate hike in the near future.

Key statements in recent days:

• ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau stated that the central bank’s next step will very likely be a rate hike, although the exact timing has not yet been determined
• Fabio Panetta, a supporter of dovish monetary policy, unexpectedly started talking about the need to prevent a wage-price spiral, which the market interpreted as a hint of readiness to act
• The market reacted immediately: the ECB Watch Tool shows an 81% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase as early as the 30 April meeting

The euro paradox: on the one hand, high inflation in the eurozone, at 2.5% in March against 1.9% in February, with the rise driven entirely by a 6.8% increase in energy prices, is forcing the ECB to act. On the other hand, Europe remains an energy importer, and high oil prices are hitting the economy, creating a risk of stagflation.

The US currency continues to benefit from demand as the main safe haven, despite the fact that the US Dollar index (DXY) has edged lower and is fluctuating in the 99.90–100.30 range.

Factors supporting the dollar:

• Geopolitical premium: the US President continues harsh rhetoric towards Iran, boasting about the destruction of a bridge in Tehran and promising much more. Iran, in turn, is not going to back down. This is keeping the market under tension and pushing capital into the dollar
• Anticipation of Nonfarm Payrolls: today, the key US labour market report for March will be released. The forecast for 3 April 2026 suggests growth of 65 thousand jobs, compared to a decline in February
• Labour market paradox: weak NFP figures may hit the dollar, as they will strengthen expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. At the same time, if the data comes in above forecast, the dollar will receive support. The market has frozen in anticipation of the data release.

Unlike the ECB, the Fed is maintaining a more dovish stance. Markets are still pricing in at least one Fed rate cut by the end of the year, by 11 basis points, while the ECB will likely be raising rates. This divergence in monetary policy is the euro’s main trump card in the medium term.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could develop a corrective wave following this signal. Since quotes remain within a descending channel, the upper boundary near the 1.1580 mark may act as the pullback target. A rebound from this level will open the way for continued downward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers another scenario. Quotes may continue the downtrend within the channel and test the support level around 1.1450. Then, after breaking support, they may continue to decline.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1580 and 1.1630
• Key support levels: 1.1450 and 1.1410

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 1.1500 would indicate stronger selling pressure amid geopolitical tensions and the stance of the ECB and the Fed. The price decline may accelerate if demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset remains in place.

• Take Profit: 1.1410
• Stop Loss: 1.1530

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level and consolidation above 1.1580 would confirm the return of risk appetite and would allow the pair to form a deeper correction. Growth is possible if the news backdrop stabilises and the euro strengthens.

• Take Profit: 1.1660
• Stop Loss: 1.1550

Risk factors

Risks to the decline remain amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This supports the dollar and limits the pair’s upside potential. At the same time, softer Fed rhetoric or signs of de-escalation in the Middle East may restore demand for the euro and trigger growth in the EURUSD rate.

Summary

The market has frozen in anticipation of US labour market data and signals on ECB and Fed interest rates. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards the 1.1580 mark before a decline.

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