EURUSD is correcting within a Triangle pattern

The EURUSD pair remains in a phase of uncertainty, combining corrective growth with the impact of strong US macroeconomic data and rising geopolitical risks. The rate currently stands at 1.1525. Discover more in our analysis for 6 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair remains within a Triangle pattern, indicating market uncertainty
• Threats of strikes on Iranian infrastructure have increased global risks
• Rising geopolitical tensions are supporting demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset
• EURUSD forecast for 6 April 2026: 1.1325

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is on a corrective rise after declining for two consecutive trading sessions. Quotes remain within a Triangle pattern, indicating persistent market uncertainty, with the pattern’s upper boundary near 1.1630 and the lower boundary limited by the 1.1435 mark.

Donald Trump has intensified geopolitical rhetoric and set a new deadline, threatening strikes on Iranian power plants and other civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This is increasing global risks and supporting the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

At the same time, US macroeconomic data came in significantly stronger than expected. In March 2026, the economy created 178 thousand new jobs, marking the largest increase since December 2024. Actual data significantly exceeded the market forecast of 60 thousand, with the healthcare sector making the main contribution to employment growth. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% a month earlier, also coming in above expectations.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate continues its corrective movement within the Triangle pattern. The price remains below the EMA-65, indicating persistent selling pressures and confirming the prevailing bearish sentiment. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a decline with a target at the 1.1325 level.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the descending resistance line and has formed a bearish crossover, increasing the likelihood of a new downward momentum. A breakout below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern, with quotes consolidating below the 1.1425 level, will confirm the decline and signal the start of the pattern’s implementation.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth. A breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern and consolidation above 1.1645 will open the door to upward momentum.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1565 and 1.1635
• Key support levels: 1.1425 and 1.1325

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 1.1485 level would indicate stronger selling pressure and an imminent breakout of the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern.

• Take Profit: 1.1325
• Stop Loss: 1.1535

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, with the price consolidating above 1.1645, would confirm that selling pressure has eased and quotes have broken the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern.

• Take Profit: 1.1745
• Stop Loss: 1.1555

Risk factors

The risks to the downside scenario are linked to a possible easing of geopolitical tensions, which would reduce demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and push the EURUSD rate higher. An additional factor may be a breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern, with quotes consolidating above the 1.1645 level, which would cancel the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a new bullish momentum.

Summary

Strong US labour market data and rising geopolitical tensions are supporting the dollar, but the technical picture for the EURUSD pair remains neutral until the price moves beyond the 1.1435-1.1630 Triangle pattern. EURUSD technical analysis indicates that sellers remain in control of the market, and until the price moves above 1.1645, the priority remains with the downside scenario, with a target at the 1.1325 level.

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