EURUSD continues to drift lower: the market remains sensitive to external factors

The EURUSD pair fell to 1.1537, with Iran and economic data remaining in the spotlight. Find more details in our analysis for 7 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair continues to decline due to external pressure
• Investors believe the Federal Reserve rate will remain unchanged in the near term
• EURUSD forecast for 7 April 2026: 1.1500 or 1.1600

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate hovered at 1.1537 on Tuesday, with investors under pressure from the deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran.

Trump again warned of possible strikes on energy and transport infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if the conditions, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are not met. At the same time, he noted that negotiations with Tehran are continuing.

Previously, the US dollar remained under pressure after reports of a possible 45-day truce and a partial restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now investors are shifting their attention to US macroeconomic data, with the focus on durable goods orders, inflation, and the FOMC minutes, which may clarify the regulator’s next steps.

The market is already pricing in the Fed keeping rates unchanged in the near term. At the same time, there are virtually no expectations of policy easing this year.

The EURUSD forecast is moderately negative.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows sideways movement after the previous decline. The price is moving within an approximate range of 1.1450–1.1630, periodically testing its boundaries, but without consolidating beyond them. The latest upward impulse towards the 1.16–1.1630 zone was quickly bought out by sellers, after which the market returned to the middle of the range around 1.1530–1.1550.

Bollinger Bands indicate a narrowing range after expansion phases, signalling lower volatility and the market’s transition into a consolidation stage. The price is currently hovering near the indicator’s middle line, confirming a balance between buyers and sellers. The lack of a sustained trend makes the movement more chaotic and sensitive to news.

Momentum indicators show weaker short-term growth. The Stochastic Oscillator turned down from overbought territory, signalling local selling pressure. MACD remains near the zero line and is losing momentum, indicating a neutral phase without a clear direction. In the near term, movement within the range remains likely, with the key support level around 1.1500 and resistance around 1.1600–1.1630.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with a downward bias
• Key resistance levels: 1.1600 and 1.1630
• Key support levels: 1.1500 and 1.1450

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 1.1500 level would indicate stronger selling pressure amid geopolitical risks and demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

• Take Profit: 1.1450
• Stop Loss: 1.1555

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of the 1.1630 level would confirm weaker bearish pressure and an upward breakout from the range.

• Take Profit: 1.1700
• Stop Loss: 1.1565

Risk factors

The risks to the downside scenario are linked to a possible easing of tensions around Iran following Trump’s statements, which may weaken demand for the dollar. In addition, more dovish signals from the Federal Reserve may support EURUSD growth and cancel the bearish scenario.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is drifting lower, as the Middle East factor is creating multiple risks. The EURUSD forecast for today, 7 April 2026, suggests a moderate decline within the 1.1500-1.1600 range.

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