EURUSD consolidated above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern

The EURUSD pair has entered a correction phase after a strong rally, while retaining the potential for further upward movement amid mixed fundamental factors. The rate currently stands at 1.1657. Discover more in our analysis for 9 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Growth in EURUSD gave way to a correction after three sessions of gains
• An upward breakout of the Triangle pattern maintains the potential for growth towards 1.1865
• The Federal Reserve minutes showed growing disagreements within the regulator
• EURUSD forecast for 9 April 2026: 1.1765

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting after rising for three consecutive trading sessions. Quotes moved out of a large Triangle pattern on the daily chart, indicating continued upside potential towards the 1.1865 level after the current correction ends.

The US dollar weakened sharply on Wednesday. The market reacted to news that the US and Iran had reached an agreement on a two-week ceasefire. Easing geopolitical tensions led to falling oil prices and weaker inflation expectations.

The minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed stronger disagreements within the regulator, with some members considering an interest rate hike to curb inflation. At the same time, a significant number of Fed officials still view a rate cut as the next step.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks persist. Iranian media reported a suspension of oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz after new Israeli strikes on Lebanon. A senior Iranian official also stated that three points of the ceasefire agreement had been violated.

Technical outlook

EURUSD quotes continue to decline as a Wedge reversal pattern forms. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a possible rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel, followed by growth towards 1.1765.

The technical picture remains favourable for buyers. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the support line and forming a bullish crossover, increasing the likelihood of an upward momentum. An additional signal is the indicator’s move out of oversold territory, confirming weakening selling pressure. A breakout above the upper boundary of the Wedge pattern with price consolidation above the 1.1665 level will confirm continued growth.

An alternative scenario suggests a renewed decline if the lower boundary of the bullish channel breaks and the price consolidates below the 1.1605 level, opening the door to a bearish correction.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1665 and 1.1725
• Key support levels: 1.1645 and 1.1615

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1665 level would indicate a breakout above the upper boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern, opening the way for the pattern to play out with higher targets.

• Take Profit: 1.1765
• Stop Loss: 1.1640

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel with consolidation below the 1.1605 level would confirm easing bullish pressure and indicate a bearish correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1535
• Stop Loss: 1.1680

Risk factors

Risks to the upside scenario are linked to a possible strengthening of the US dollar amid strong macroeconomic data, which may trigger a breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel and a deeper bearish correction. Additional pressure will come from an escalation of geopolitical tensions, which could restore demand for safe-haven assets and push the EURUSD pair below key levels.

Summary

The current EURUSD correction is technical, while the persistence of fundamental factors and the breakout of the pattern indicate the likelihood of continued growth towards 1.1865. Despite the current decline, the market structure remains bullish, and a confirmation of the Wedge breakout will increase the probability of upward movement towards 1.1765.

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