EURUSD is watching policy and factoring in the Fed outlook

The EURUSD pair is holding near 1.1691. Investors are watching the news: the meeting in Islamabad is in focus. More details are in our analysis for 10 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair edged lower towards the end of the week, but overall it looks more stable
• In the base scenario, the market expects one rate cut this year
• EURUSD forecast for 10 April 2026: 1.1650 or 1.1720

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate pulled back to 1.1691 at the end of the week. Overall, the main currency pair looks stable. The two-week truce between the US and Iran triggered a sharp fall in oil prices and eased fears about faster inflation and possible rate hikes.

Diplomatic talks in Islamabad moved into focus for investors, where the US delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance. The meetings with the Iranian side are expected to clarify the prospects for further agreements.

At the same time, sentiment remains cautious. Strikes in the region and disruptions to operations in the Strait of Hormuz continue to create risks for the negotiating process.

On the macroeconomic front, the market is waiting for the release of March CPI data, which may show the impact of the Middle East conflict on price pressure.

Additionally, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting pointed to the regulator’s concern about the persistence of inflation against the backdrop of the conflict. At the same time, the base scenario still assumes one rate cut this year, despite the risks of tighter policy.

The EURUSD forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that after declining towards the 1.1450 area, the market reversed and moved into steady growth. The latest upward impulse was fairly sharp: the price broke through several local resistance levels and moved into the 1.1680–1.1720 zone. This points to stronger buyer activity and a shift in the short-term trend to upwards.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the rise, which signals stronger volatility and the presence of momentum. The price is moving near the upper boundary of the channel, which may point to local overbought conditions. At the same time, holding above the middle line confirms the strength of the current move, although the market may pause after such acceleration.

Indicators support the bullish scenario, but with signs of slowing. MACD is in positive territory and is rising, but the pace of increase is slowing. The stochastic has moved into the overbought zone and is starting to turn downwards, which may point to a short-term correction. In the near term, consolidation remains likely with support around 1.1650 and resistance near 1.1720.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward with signs of slowing
• Key resistance levels: 1.1720 and 1.1765
• Key support levels: 1.1650 and 1.1605

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1720 will confirm the continuation of the upward impulse after strong growth and open the way for an extension of the move.

• Take Profit: 1.1765
• Stop Loss: 1.1680

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of 1.1650 will indicate a move into correction after overheating and stronger pressure from sellers.

• Take Profit: 1.1605
• Stop Loss: 1.1695

Risk factors

The risks to growth are linked to a stronger dollar against the backdrop of macroeconomic data, above all CPI, and signals from the Fed. Additional pressure may arise if the geopolitical backdrop worsens and negotiations collapse, which will restore demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and trigger a pullback in EURUSD from current levels.

Summary

The EURUSD pair edged slightly lower, but over the five-day period it looks clearly better than before. The EURUSD forecast for today, 10 April 2026, suggests consolidation within the 1.1650-1.1720 range.

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