EURUSD is strengthening rapidly: a glimmer of positivity added momentum

The EURUSD pair climbed to a six-week peak at 1.1769. Investors are watching a local improvement in the external environment. Discover more in our analysis for 14 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is rising on some improvement in the Middle East backdrop
• As soon as Fed rate forecasts change, the US dollar moves lower
• EURUSD forecast for 14 April 2026: 1.1770 or 1.1790

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate surged to 1.1769 on Tuesday, the highest level in six weeks. Pressure on the US dollar is linked to investors shifting towards riskier assets amid expectations of a possible agreement between the US and Iran.

Despite the failure of negotiations over the weekend and Trump’s announcement of a blockade on Iranian oil supplies, the situation later improved slightly. The US President reported renewed contacts with Tehran and a potential return to dialogue.

Expectations of a longer-lasting ceasefire and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks and lowering expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish policy stance.

In addition, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran noted that the energy shock has not yet affected long-term inflation expectations. He also stated that he expects inflation to return to the target level within a year.

The EURUSD forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that after the decline in late March, the market formed a solid base and began to move upwards. The latest upward momentum was fairly strong, with the price breaking above several local resistance levels and moving into the 1.1750–1.1770 zone, where it is now testing the upper boundary of the range. This indicates active buyer dominance in the short term.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the rise, signalling increased volatility and momentum. The price is moving along the upper boundary of the channel, which is a sign of a strong trend, but also points to local overbought conditions. Attempts to consolidate above the current highs still appear uncertain, suggesting there is a growing likelihood of a pause or pullback.

Indicators confirm the strength of the trend, but with signs of slowing. While MACD remains in positive territory, the histogram is starting to contract, signalling weaker momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has consolidated in overbought territory, increasing the risk of a short-term correction. In the near term, consolidation below the 1.1770 resistance level is possible, with support in the 1.1700–1.1720 area.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1770 and 1.1790
• Key support levels: 1.1720 and 1.1700

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

*Main scenario (Buy Stop)*

Consolidation above 1.1770 would confirm continued upward momentum amid a weaker dollar and expectations of softer Fed rhetoric. In this case, the pair could continue to move towards 1.1790 and higher.

• Take Profit: 1.1820
• Stop Loss: 1.1735

*Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)*

A breakout below the 1.1720 support level would indicate the beginning of a correction after overbought conditions and a weakening of the short-term upward momentum.

• Take Profit: 1.1685
• Stop Loss: 1.1765

Risk factors

Risks to the upside are linked to a possible strengthening of the dollar amid US macroeconomic data or signals from the Federal Reserve. A deteriorating geopolitical backdrop could be an additional factor, increasing demand for safe-haven assets and triggering a pullback in the EURUSD rate from its current highs.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is rising, confirming technical momentum. The EURUSD forecast for today, 14 April 2026, suggests consolidation below 1.1770 and further movement towards 1.1790, subject to favourable conditions.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.