EURUSD at a six-week high: demand returns to normal

The EURUSD pair rose to 1.1787. Geopolitics remains the priority, with the focus on economic data. Discover more in our analysis for 15 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is in positive territory due to stabilisation in the Middle East
• The market is now less concerned about the possibility of central bank rate hikes
• EURUSD forecast for 15 April 2026: 1.1810

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating near 1.1787 on Wednesday, with the US dollar remaining at six-week lows. Pressure on the currency is linked to lower demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in the Middle East.

In effect, the dollar has almost completely given back the gains accumulated since the start of the Iranian conflict. The US and Iran are preparing for a second round of negotiations before the current two-week ceasefire expires, although tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain.

Oil prices have fallen sharply, reducing inflation risks and lowering expectations of central bank rate hikes. Against this backdrop, the market is pricing in expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged until the end of the year. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that a rate cut could be postponed until 2027 if high oil prices persist.

In the near term, investors will focus on US macroeconomic data, including import and export price indices, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and the NAHB Housing Market Index.

The EURUSD forecast is confident.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that after declining in late March, the pair formed a solid base and began a pronounced upward movement. The latest upward momentum was fairly strong, with the price moving quickly through several resistance levels and entering the 1.1780–1.1810 zone, indicating buyer dominance and a stronger short-term trend.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the rise, signalling increased volatility and momentum. The price is moving along the upper boundary of the channel, periodically testing it – a sign of a strong trend, but at the same time, it is a signal of local overbought conditions. Attempts to consolidate above 1.1810 still appear uncertain, which may lead to a pause or a short-term correction.

Indicators confirm the rise, but with signs of slowing. While MACD remains in positive territory and continues to rise, the histogram is gradually stabilising, signalling weaker momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and is turning downwards, increasing the probability of a pullback. In the near term, consolidation remains possible with support in the 1.1720–1.1750 area and resistance around 1.1810.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1810 and 1.1850
• Key support levels: 1.1750 and 1.1720

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

*Main scenario (Buy Stop)*

Consolidation above 1.1810 would confirm continued upward momentum amid dollar weakness and lower inflation expectations. In this case, the pair could continue to rise towards new local highs.

• Take Profit: 1.1850
• Stop Loss: 1.1765

*Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)*

A breakout below the 1.1750 level would indicate a correction after overbought conditions and profit-taking by buyers.

• Take Profit: 1.1705
• Stop Loss: 1.1805

Risk factors

Risks to the upside are linked to a possible strengthening of the dollar amid US macroeconomic data or signals from the Federal Reserve. A deteriorating geopolitical backdrop could be an additional factor, increasing demand for safe-haven assets and triggering a pullback in the EURUSD rate from its current highs.

Summary

The EURUSD pair has risen and has now paused to consolidate. The EURUSD forecast for today, 15 April 2026, suggests continued upward momentum and a likely test of the 1.1810 level.

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