EURUSD: pause and correction do not cancel the overall strength

The EURUSD pair pulled back to 1.1776, marking the third consecutive week the US dollar has closed lower. Discover more in our analysis for 17 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair has paused its rise, but overall, it appears stable
• Easing oil tensions remove extra pressure on the Fed regarding interest rates
• EURUSD forecast for 17 April 2026: 1.1820

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.1776 on Friday. Despite the decline, the pair is ending the third consecutive week with gains, driven by lower demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of an end to the US-Iran conflict.

Donald Trump stated that the war may end soon and that progress has been made on key conditions, including Tehran’s abandonment of its nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has also been announced, supporting the overall diplomatic backdrop.

Lower oil prices are further reducing inflation expectations and easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy.

New York Fed President John Williams noted that high uncertainty limits the ability to provide clear signals on rates. In the baseline scenario, expectations of rate cuts remain in place in the longer term.

The EURUSD forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the upward structure remains in place after the reversal from the lows. The price is consistently forming higher highs and higher lows, moving along the middle Bollinger Band. The latest upward impulse brought quotes into the 1.18+ area, where the market started to slow and move into a local consolidation phase.

A narrowing in the price range is now visible: candlesticks are becoming less impulsive, the price is holding near the indicator’s middle line, and the upper Bollinger Band is acting as resistance. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved out of overbought territory and turned downwards, indicating short-term cooling. MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram is declining, suggesting that the upward momentum is weakening.

Overall, the market appears to be undergoing a correction amid an uptrend. The nearest support level is forming in the 1.1750–1.1770 zone, while resistance remains around 1.1820+. The baseline scenario is sideways movement with the risk of a pullback before a possible new attempt at growth.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1820 and 1.1865
• Key support levels: 1.1765 and 1.1655

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1820 would confirm continued upward movement amid a weaker dollar and easing inflation expectations. In this case, the pair may test the 1.1900 area.

• Take Profit: 1.1900
• Stop Loss: 1.1790

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.1765 level would indicate a correction after local overbought conditions and profit-taking. Pressure may intensify towards a deeper support level.

• Take Profit: 1.1655
• Stop Loss: 1.1790

Risk factors

Risks to growth are linked to a possible strengthening of the dollar amid strong US data or signals from the Federal Reserve. A deteriorating geopolitical backdrop could be a contributing factor, increasing demand for safe-haven assets and triggering a correction in the EURUSD rate from its current levels.

Summary

The EURUSD pair has paused amid a steady rise. The EURUSD forecast for today, 17 April 2026, does not rule out renewed growth towards 1.1820, subject to favourable conditions.

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