EURUSD falls as talks break down

The EURUSD pair dipped to 1.1739. The market is once again turning its attention to safe-haven assets. Find more details in our analysis for 22 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is edging lower as demand for safe-haven assets rises
• Federal Reserve officials are giving the market hawkish signals
• EURUSD forecast for 22 April 2026: 1.1715

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining towards 1.1739 midweek, with the US dollar supported by renewed demand for safe-haven assets as the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran has collapsed.

US Vice President JD Vance cancelled his trip to Islamabad after Tehran notified through intermediaries that it refuses to take part in the meeting. Iran also stated that it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US Navy continues to intercept vessels.

At the same time, Donald Trump extended the current ceasefire, postponing new strikes until receiving proposals from Iran and the completion of negotiations.

A more hawkish signal has also emerged from monetary policy. Fed candidate Kevin Warsh stressed independence from the White House and readiness for reforms. The market interpreted this as a hawkish factor.

The EURUSD forecast is cautious.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that after a confident upward move, the pair has moved into a phase of slowing and consolidation. The rise from the 1.1500 area brought the price into the 1.18+ zone, where a local high formed, after which a correction began. Quotes are now trading closer to the middle of the range, gradually slipping downwards from the upper boundary. The overall structure remains upward, but momentum has clearly weakened.

Bollinger Bands indicate a narrowing range, and volatility is decreasing after the previous expansion. The price is moving along the middle line and is periodically testing the lower boundary, indicating an attempt to form local support. The 1.1715 level is acting as the nearest support, while the 1.1840 zone remains key resistance, where reversals occurred earlier.

Indicators confirm a cooling phase. MACD is hovering near the zero mark, indicating weakening momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has exited overbought territory and is moving in neutral territory, signalling a possible continuation of sideways momentum. Overall, the market is waiting for a new driver. Either a rebound from the support level and an attempt to rise will follow, or a breakout lower will accelerate the correction.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1840 and 1.1870
• Key support levels: 1.1730 and 1.1715

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1840 would confirm an attempt to resume growth after the consolidation phase. In this case, the pair may move towards 1.1900 provided the external backdrop stabilises.

• Take Profit: 1.1900
• Stop Loss: 1.1790

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 1.1730 would strengthen corrective pressure amid rising demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The move may accelerate towards 1.1715 and then to a deeper support level.

• Take Profit: 1.1655
• Stop Loss: 1.1760

Risk factors

Risks to growth include mounting tensions in the Middle East, which is supporting demand for the dollar. An additional factor may be more hawkish Fed rhetoric and a revision of rate expectations towards tighter policy, which would limit the EURUSD’s recovery potential.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is declining due to changes in the external environment. The EURUSD forecast for today, 22 April 2026, does not rule out a slide towards 1.1715.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.