EURUSD in negative territory: demand for safe-haven assets outweighs risk appetite

The EURUSD pair moved down to 1.1688. Everyone is keeping a close eye on the Strait of Hormuz and waiting for US data. Find out more in our analysis for 23 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is declining amid inflation risks and a local ceasefire in the Middle East
• New US labour market data has come into focus
• EURUSD forecast for 23 April 2026: 1.1680

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.1688 on Thursday. The US dollar is again in demand amid a lack of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, which is boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Iran is retaining control over the strategic route and has already detained several vessels, while the US is blockading Iranian ports. This is supporting high energy prices and increasing inflation risks.

Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire will remain in force indefinitely while Washington awaits a new proposal from Tehran on resolving the conflict.

Inflation risks remain persistent, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged this year. Fed chair candidate Kevin Warsh confirmed a course of independence for the Federal Reserve, which the market interpreted as a signal of more hawkish policy.

Investor attention will now shift to jobless claims data and PMI indices, which will provide additional guidance on the state of the US economy.

The EURUSD forecast is mixed.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that after a strong rally, the pair reached the resistance zone around 1.1850 and failed to consolidate above it. A gradual correction began from this level, while the structure remains formally upward, but the momentum has clearly weakened. The latest candlesticks show a smooth decline without sharp sell-offs – the market is drifting downwards rather than reversing.

Bollinger Bands indicate a narrowing range after expansion, signalling lower volatility and a transition into a consolidation phase. The price has fallen below the middle line and is moving closer to the lower boundary, testing the support zone around 1.1680–1.1690. This area is now key: buying occurred here earlier, and the market is testing its strength.

Indicators confirm a weakening trend. MACD is in negative territory and continues to fall, signalling seller dominance in the short term. The Stochastic Oscillator is near oversold territory and is starting to turn upwards, which may give a short-term rebound. Overall, the market is in a correction phase within a broader upward structure, and further movement will depend on the reaction to current support.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1840 and 1.1870
• Key support levels: 1.1690 and 1.1680

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1840 would confirm an attempt at recovery after the current correction. If the geopolitical backdrop stabilises, the pair may move towards 1.1900.

• Take Profit: 1.1900
• Stop Loss: 1.1790

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 1.1690 would intensify pressure amid growing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The move may continue to 1.1680 and then to 1.1655.

• Take Profit: 1.1655
• Stop Loss: 1.1760

Risk factors

Risks to the upside include mounting tensions in the Middle East and continued high inflation risks, which support the dollar. An additional factor may be hawkish Fed rhetoric and a revision of rate expectations, which would limit the EURUSD’s recovery potential.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is declining as the market is becoming increasingly interested in safe-haven assets. The EURUSD forecast for today, 23 April 2026, does not rule out a decline to 1.1680 and consolidation near this level.

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