EURUSD in positive territory: what will the Fed decide, and will Powell leave?

The EURUSD pair edged up to 1.1729, with all eyes on the Middle East and the Fed’s next rate decision. Find more details in our analysis for 27 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is attempting to recover despite a mixed external backdrop
• The market expects the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at the next meeting
• EURUSD forecast for 27 April 2026: 1.1750

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising to 1.1729 on Monday, with the market keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East, as before. There is still no progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, which is keeping tensions high and boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

Donald Trump cancelled the delegation’s visit to the second round of negotiations. Tehran has reiterated that it will not engage in dialogue under pressure and under blockade conditions.

Against this backdrop, oil prices continue to move upwards, as the conflict has now entered its ninth week and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Inflation risks are increasing, raising expectations that central banks will keep rates higher for longer or even tighten policy further.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at the next meeting. Incidentally, it may become Jerome Powell’s last meeting as head of the regulator before a possible leadership change in May.

Investors are also preparing for decisions from the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. Their signals may set the direction for markets over the coming weeks.

The EURUSD forecast is mixed.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that after a strong rally, the pair formed a local high near 1.1850, from which a correction began. The downward movement is developing gradually, without sharp impulses, indicating profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. At the same time, the structure of higher lows is partly intact, but is becoming less distinct.

The price is now trading near the middle Bollinger Band and is attempting to stabilise after the decline. The lower boundary of the range around 1.1670–1.1680 is acting as support, from which a local rebound is already being seen. The upper boundary near 1.1800 remains the key resistance level, as selling pressure intensified there earlier.

Indicators are showing an attempt at recovery. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards from oversold territory, signalling short-term growth. MACD remains in negative territory, but its histogram is narrowing, signalling weakening downward momentum. Overall, the market appears to be correcting within the range, attempting to rebound from the support level.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately upward (correction within the range)
• Key resistance levels: 1.1785 and 1.1850
• Key support levels: 1.1670 and 1.1600

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1785 would confirm an attempt to recover following the correction and a return of risk appetite. In this case, the pair may test the 1.1850–1.1900 zone if the external backdrop stabilises.

• Take Profit: 1.1900
• Stop Loss: 1.1745

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.1670 level would intensify pressure amid demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The move may accelerate towards 1.1600 and lower if geopolitical tensions persist.

• Take Profit: 1.1600
• Stop Loss: 1.1705

Risk factors

Risks to the upside include mounting tensions in the Middle East and rising inflation expectations, which are supporting the dollar. An additional factor could be more hawkish Fed rhetoric and expectations of a prolonged period of high rates.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is on the rise and is currently holding its ground against external headwinds. The EURUSD forecast for today, 27 April 2026, does not rule out an attempt to recover towards 1.1750.

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