EURUSD in a range: too many key events on the horizon

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1713, with markets awaiting the Fed and news about the new head of the regulator. Find more details in our analysis for 28 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair paused its movement ahead of the Fed meeting and amid intrigue over the head of the Federal Reserve
• From a technical standpoint, consolidation continues
• EURUSD forecast for 28 April 2026: 1.1670 or 1.1750

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating near 1.1713 on Tuesday. The market is analysing renewed diplomatic efforts around the US-Iran conflict. This has reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

Iran sent the US a new proposal through Pakistani mediators, suggesting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on condition that the blockade is lifted. However, disagreements over the nuclear program remain the key obstacle.

The market is also focused on the Federal Reserve meeting, where the rate is expected to remain unchanged. This meeting may be the last for Jerome Powell as head of the regulator.

Fed chair candidate Kevin Warsh stressed policy independence, although the market continues to price in a more active easing cycle in the future.

In addition, investors are awaiting decisions from other key central banks – the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan – which may set the direction for markets over the coming weeks.

The EURUSD forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that after forming a local high near 1.1850, the market moved into a correction phase. The decline developed gradually, with a series of lower highs, which indicates weakening upward momentum. At the same time, there are no sharp sell-offs; the move appears to be a controlled pullback within a broader structure.

The price is now hovering below the middle Bollinger Band, signalling a local seller advantage. The lower boundary of the range near 1.1670 is acting as key support, from which rebounds have occurred previously. Above, the 1.1750–1.1760 zone has become the nearest resistance – this is exactly where the price slows during recovery attempts. The range is gradually narrowing, indicating accumulation before the next move.

Indicators confirm neutral-to-negative momentum. MACD remains in negative territory, but the histogram is narrowing – selling pressure is gradually easing. The Stochastic Oscillator has exited overbought territory and is now moving downwards, periodically giving signals for short-term rebounds. Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase with a downward bias and is waiting for a new driver to break out of the range.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: consolidation with a downward bias
• Key resistance levels: 1.1750 and 1.1785
• Key support levels: 1.1670 and 1.1600

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1750–1.1785 would confirm an attempt at recovery amid lower demand for safe-haven assets and stabilising external conditions. In this case, the pair may return to test the 1.1850 zone.

• Take Profit: 1.1850
• Stop Loss: 1.1720

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 1.1670 would strengthen pressure amid expectations of hawkish Fed policy and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The move may accelerate towards 1.1600.

• Take Profit: 1.1600
• Stop Loss: 1.1705

Risk factors

Risks to growth are linked to mounting tensions in the Middle East and renewed demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. An additional factor could be more hawkish Fed rhetoric and uncertainty around the change of the regulator’s head, limiting the EURUSD's recovery potential.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is conserving strength. The EURUSD forecast for today, 28 April 2026, does not rule out continued consolidation within the 1.1670-1.1750 range.

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