EURUSD falls amid persistent inflation in the US

The EURUSD rate continues to decline amid a stronger dollar and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. The rate currently stands at 1.1668. Discover more in our analysis for 30 April 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD rate is declining for the third consecutive trading session
• The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, but signalled a more hawkish policy course
• US inflation remains elevated amid rising energy prices
• EURUSD forecast for 30 April 2026: 1.1545

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining for the third consecutive trading session. Sellers are increasing pressure and attempting to consolidate below the key support level at 1.1665. A confident breakout of this level could accelerate the bearish momentum. The currency pair has reached a three-week low amid a stronger dollar. The US currency received support from the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish monetary policy stance than the market had expected.

The regulator held the rate steady, in line with market forecasts, but disagreements emerged within the committee. Some officials opposed signals of a possible resumption of rate cuts, reinforcing the perception of policy as restrictive. An additional factor came from inflation dynamics in the US. Price growth remains elevated, largely because of higher energy prices, limiting the scope for policy easing.

At the same time, inflationary pressure is also intensifying in the eurozone. Preliminary data from Germany showed harmonised inflation accelerating to 2.9%, marking the highest level since 2024.

Technical outlook

EURUSD quotes have moved beyond the bullish channel. Sellers are increasing pressure and attempting to break below the key support level at 1.1665. The price is holding steadily below the EMA-65, indicating that bears remain in control. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a high probability of a new downward momentum. A rebound from the channel’s lower boundary, followed by a decline to the 1.1545 mark, may act as the signal for this scenario to develop.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator formed a rebound from the descending resistance line, which is increasing pressure on the pair. Consolidation below the 1.1665 level would confirm the downside scenario and strengthen the downward move.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth if the price breaks above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidates above the 1.1720 level. In this case, the likelihood of a bullish correction will increase.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1725 and 1.1795
• Key support levels: 1.1665 and 1.1585

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 1.1665 level would confirm the downside scenario and increase selling pressure.

• Take Profit: 1.1545
• Stop Loss: 1.1705

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidation above the 1.1720 level would indicate the resumption of the bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1805
• Stop Loss: 1.1685

Risk factors

The EURUSD downside scenario may be disrupted if the Fed softens its rhetoric or inflationary pressure eases, which will weaken the US dollar. An additional risk is a breakout and consolidation above the 1.1720 resistance level.

Summary

A stronger dollar amid the Fed’s hawkish stance and persistent inflation is putting pressure on the EURUSD rate, increasing the risks of a further decline if the key support level is broken. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a predominantly bearish scenario, and a breakout below the 1.1665 level could accelerate the decline towards 1.1545.

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