EURUSD on hold: what comes next

The EURUSD pair is holding at 1.1734, with everyone conserving strength without fresh news. Discover more in our analysis for 4 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair has entered a consolidation phase ahead of crucial US data
• The market needs more data, and for now, it is building momentum
• EURUSD forecast for 4 May 2026: 1.1670 or 1.1780

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating at 1.1734 on Monday. The US dollar is attempting to recover after a sharp decline last week. The market appears cautious amid speculation that Japan may intervene to prop up the yen.

Investors also believe that the US may coordinate steps with Japan to stabilise the currency market. Last Thursday, the dollar fell by about 3% against the yen amid speculation about intervention by Tokyo, but no official confirmation followed.

In the US, attention is shifting to macroeconomic data. The key event of the week will be the April labour market report, which will be released on Friday. Expectations point to slower employment growth.

Geopolitics also remains in focus. Donald Trump announced plans to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz and, at the same time, noted signs of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran.

The EURUSD forecast is cautious.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that after growth towards the 1.1800–1.1850 zone, the market formed a local high and entered a correction phase. The decline developed gradually, without sharp impulses, with lower highs forming, indicating weakening upward momentum. However, the structure does not look like a full-fledged reversal; rather, it is a controlled pullback within a broader range.

The price is now standing near the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. The range is narrowing after the previous expansion, signalling a consolidation phase. The 1.1650–1.1670 zone is acting as firm support, where rebounds have already been seen, while the 1.1780–1.1800 area remains key resistance, where selling pressure intensifies.

Indicators confirm neutral dynamics with an attempt at recovery. The Stochastic Oscillator has recently moved out of oversold territory and is pointing upwards, indicating short-term growth, while MACD remains near the zero line, reflecting the absence of a strong trend. Overall, the market is trading sideways and is building potential for another move, which will depend on external factors.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways (consolidation with a downward bias)
• Key resistance levels: 1.1780 and 1.1800
• Key support levels: 1.1670 and 1.1650

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 1.1670 would confirm continued pressure amid the dollar’s recovery and strengthen the downside scenario within the range. In this case, the pair may move towards 1.1650 and lower.

• Take Profit: 1.1600
• Stop Loss: 1.1710

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 1.1780 would indicate an attempt at recovery after the correction. If supported by external factors, the pair could rise towards 1.1800 and higher.

• Take Profit: 1.1820
• Stop Loss: 1.1740

Risk factors

Risks to growth are limited by the dollar’s recovery and uncertainty around Japan’s interventions. Strong US macroeconomic data, particularly the labour market report, could add to pressure, while weak data may support the euro and strengthen corrective growth.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is in a consolidation phase after last week’s sharp moves. The EURUSD forecast for today, 4 May 2026, suggests the price could remain within the 1.1670-1.1780 range.

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