EURUSD continues to rise for the second consecutive session

The EURUSD pair is strengthening amid improving external news and lower inflation expectations, with the rate currently at 1.1733. Find more details in our analysis for 6 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair rebounded from the 1.1675 support level and approached the 1.1745 resistance level
• The euro is bolstered by optimism over US-Iran talks
• Market participants are preparing for the release of the key US employment report on Friday
• EURUSD forecast for 6 May 2026: 1.1625

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising for the second consecutive trading session. Quotes rebounded confidently from the 1.1675 support level and approached the key resistance level at 1.1745. Consolidation above this mark would open the way for further gains, with a target at 1.1805.

The euro is receiving support amid growing optimism surrounding a possible agreement between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump suspended the operation aimed at controlling shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, citing significant progress in negotiations with Tehran.

Lower oil prices have eased inflation risks and reduced expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve. Investors are now focused on the publication of the April ADP private employment report, which will help assess the state of the labour market ahead of the key US employment report on Friday.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate continues to move within the Triangle pattern. Despite the recent breakout of the EMA-65, selling pressure remains, limiting the upside potential. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a rebound from the pattern’s upper boundary, followed by a downward move towards the 1.1625 level.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and is forming conditions for a bearish crossover, indicating the likelihood of a stronger downward momentum in the near term. Consolidation below 1.1665 will confirm a breakout of the Triangle’s lower boundary and reinforce the signal for a decline.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth if the price breaks above the pattern’s upper boundary and consolidates above the 1.1780 level, increasing the likelihood of a sustained bullish momentum forming.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 1.1765 and 1.1825
• Key support levels: 1.1670 and 1.1620

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A rebound from the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern at 1.1750 would create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1625
• Stop Loss: 1.1785

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the Triangle’s upper boundary and consolidation above 1.1790 would indicate an attempt to develop bullish momentum with higher targets.

• Take Profit: 1.1855
• Stop Loss: 1.1725

Risk factors

Risks to the EURUSD downside scenario include a possible strengthening of the euro’s fundamental support, including further progress in US-Iran negotiations, which may support demand for risk assets. In addition, strong US labour market data or softer Fed rhetoric could trigger a breakout of the 1.1780 level and cancel the downside scenario.

Summary

The EURUSD rate maintains its upward momentum amid growing optimism around a possible agreement between the US and Iran. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a downside scenario with a target at 1.1625 while the price remains below 1.1780.

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