EURUSD on the verge of a breakout: the market is holding its breath ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls

After rising, the EURUSD rate is forming a corrective wave ahead of US employment data, with quotes testing the 1.1750 level. Find out more in our analysis for 7 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 61 thousand, currently at 109 thousand
• The ECB is laying the groundwork for future rate hikes
• EURUSD forecast for 7 May 2026: 1.1835

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair continues to consolidate near two-week highs, frozen ahead of a new fundamental signal. On Thursday morning, quotes are hovering around 1.1750.

On Wednesday, US ADP private sector employment data was released, with the actual reading coming in at 109 thousand jobs, up from 61 thousand in March. While this should have strengthened the dollar, it failed to provide any support. The reason is that the market perceived the strong data not as a signal for dollar strengthening, but as information already priced in. This stems from the situation in the Middle East, which has been in the market’s focus recently. According to the latest data, Iran and the US may sign a peace treaty.

The ECB is laying the groundwork for future rate hikes. At the April meeting, it kept rates unchanged, but President Christine Lagarde made it clear that the next meeting could become a turning point. The main reason is rising inflation due to high oil prices. The market currently estimates the likelihood of an ECB rate hike at the 4 June meeting at 87%, with a total of three hikes expected by the end of the year.

The EURUSD pair has frozen ahead of the key US labour market data. Hopes for a truce in the Strait of Hormuz weakened the dollar, but investors remain sceptical of the negotiations and are hesitant to buy the euro above 1.1800. Tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls report will become the catalyst for the USD, breaking the pair out of its consolidation phase.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may form a corrective wave following the received signal. Since they remain within an ascending channel, the 1.1715 support level could be a downside target. A rebound from this level would open the door for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another scenario. Quotes may continue their upward movement and test the 1.1835 resistance level. After a breakout, they could continue the uptrend.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 1.1770 and 1.1835
• Key support levels: 1.1715 and 1.1660

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 1.1770 resistance level could signal continued growth and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1835
• Stop Loss: 1.1745

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1715 support level would signal USD strengthening and the return of sellers to the market.

• Take Profit: 1.1660
• Stop Loss: 1.1745

Risk factors

Risks to the EURUSD upside scenario include possible strengthening in the USD’s fundamental support, including a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations, which could push energy prices higher and strengthen the USD. An additional factor would be strong US labour market data or more hawkish Fed rhetoric.

Summary

In the short term, the EURUSD pair remains in a wait-and-see mode, with US labour market data and news from the Middle East determining its future direction. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards 1.1715 before growth.

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