EURUSD is on edge again: the dollar is supported by geopolitical factors

The EURUSD pair is holding at 1.1732, with market sentiment once again being driven by emotions. Discover more in our analysis for 8 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair fell and stalled, with all eyes on the new escalation in the US-Iran conflict
• Investors are awaiting the US April labour market report
• EURUSD forecast for 8 May 2026: 1.1670 or 1.1795

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is standing at 1.1732 at the end of the week. Earlier, the main currency pair fell amid a new escalation between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated risks support demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

US destroyers repelled attacks and launched retaliatory strikes, although Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire remains formally in place. The market is awaiting Iran’s response to the proposal to reopen the strait and end the conflict. It may come in the next few days.

An additional focus is on the US April labour market report. The market expects employment growth to slow to 62 thousand while unemployment is expected to remain at 4.3%.

Despite some localised gains, the dollar remains without a clear trend against the major currencies at the end of the week.

The outlook for EURUSD is worrying.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD (H4) chart shows that after an impulsive rise towards the 1.1800–1.1850 zone, the market formed a local high and began to decline. The correction developed gradually, without sharp drops, and formed lower highs, indicating weakening bullish momentum, but not a full-blown trend reversal. Selling pressure manifests itself in waves, without aggressive dominance.

In the latest sessions, the price stabilised and began to trade sideways. The range is clearly visible between the 1.1670 support level and resistance near 1.1780–1.1795. Bollinger Bands are narrowing after the previous expansion, signalling lower volatility and accumulation ahead of the next move. The current price is fluctuating near the middle line, reflecting a balance of forces in the market.

Indicators confirm a neutral phase. The Stochastic Oscillator is moving down from overbought territory, indicating a local growth slowdown, while MACD is near the zero line and is not giving a clear trend signal. Overall, the structure appears to be consolidation within a range: the market is awaiting an external driver, and a breakout beyond 1.1670–1.1795 will determine the next direction of movement.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 1.1780 and 1.1795
• Key support levels: 1.1715 and 1.1670

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 1.1780–1.1795 zone would confirm an upside exit from consolidation amid a weaker dollar and stabilising external conditions, opening the way for further growth.

• Take Profit: 1.1835
• Stop Loss: 1.1745

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 1.1715 would indicate increased demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions. Pressure could extend towards 1.1670.

• Take Profit: 1.1670
• Stop Loss: 1.1745

Risk factors

Risks to growth include a new round of tensions between the US and Iran and increased demand for the USD. An additional factor may come from strong US labour market data or more hawkish Fed rhetoric, which would support the dollar and limit the EURUSD’s potential.

Summary

The EURUSD pair came under sharp pressure, but managed to halt its decline. The EURUSD forecast for today, 8 May 2026, does not rule out continued trading within the 1.1670-1.1795 range.

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