EURUSD loses ground after failing to break above 1.1785

The EURUSD pair is moving lower amid rising geopolitical tensions and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish policy, with the rate currently at 1.1754. Find more details in our analysis for 12 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Buyers failed to consolidate above the 1.1785 level for five consecutive trading sessions
• Geopolitical tensions continue to support high oil prices
• Expectations that the Fed will keep rates high for longer limit the EURUSD’s upside potential
• EURUSD forecast for 12 May 2026: 1.1585

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining after rebounding from the 1.1785 resistance level. Over the past five trading sessions, buyers attempted to consolidate above this mark, but all attempts failed. The nearest support level is now located at 1.1725.

The US dollar received support following statements by US President Donald Trump, who expressed doubts about the sustainability of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. He stated that Washington does not accept Tehran’s proposal for settling the conflict. Furthermore, there have been reports of a possible meeting between Trump and the national security team to discuss the option of resuming military operations.

Persistent geopolitical tensions are keeping oil prices high, adding to inflationary pressure and increasing the probability that interest rates will remain high for an extended period. Against this backdrop, market participants expect the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged until the end of the current year, which is limiting the EURUSD’s upside potential.

As a result, the EURUSD pair remains under pressure, with the bulls’ failure to overcome the 1.1785 resistance level increasing the risks of a further decline towards the nearest support level.

Technical outlook

EURUSD quotes are declining after rebounding from the upper boundary of the descending channel. Despite the fall in prices, buyers are still holding quotes above the EMA-65, indicating some bullish pressure. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a rebound from the upper boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern, followed by a downward momentum towards 1.1585.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the descending resistance line and is forming conditions for a bearish crossover, signalling a high probability of a stronger downward momentum. A breakout below the lower boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern and consolidation below 1.1710 would further confirm this scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth if the price breaks through the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidates above 1.1805. In this case, the likelihood of a renewed upward impulse will increase.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 1.1785 and 1.1855
• Key support levels: 1.1715 and 1.1605

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern and consolidation below the 1.1715 level would create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1585
• Stop Loss: 1.1775

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, with the EURUSD rate consolidating above the 1.1805 mark, would indicate increased bullish pressure and renewed bullish momentum.

• Take Profit: 1.1670
• Stop Loss: 1.1745

Risk factors

Technical risks to the EURUSD downside scenario will increase if the price breaks above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidates above the 1.1805 level, indicating that buyers have returned to the market. Fundamental risks to the EURUSD downside scenario could increase if geopolitical tensions ease and expectations of an imminent US Fed rate cut rise.

Summary

EURUSD technical analysis suggests continued downside risks, with a high probability of a decline to 1.1585 if the price consolidates below the lower boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern.

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