EURUSD remains at risk of completing a Double Top pattern

The EURUSD pair remains under strong pressure amid rising inflation in the US and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain tight policy. The rate currently stands at 1.1638. Discover more in our analysis for 15 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• A Double Top reversal pattern is forming, with a downside target at 1.1495
• Increasing inflationary pressure is raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its tight policy
• Some traders anticipate a possible Fed rate hike by December
• EURUSD forecast for 15 May 2026: 1.1535

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is falling for the fourth consecutive trading session. Despite strong downward momentum, quotes are still holding above the key support level at 1.1655. A breakout below this mark could increase pressure on the pair and open the way for a decline towards 1.1505. An additional negative signal remains the risk of completing the Double Top reversal pattern, which suggests a potential decline towards 1.1495.

The US dollar is receiving support amid rising inflationary pressures in the US. The military conflict with Iran triggered higher energy prices, fuelling expectations that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy. Previously published data showed that US inflation accelerated in April at its fastest pace since 2022, while consumer prices posted the strongest rise since 2023.

Against this backdrop, markets have almost completely ruled out the probability of a Fed rate cut this year. Moreover, some traders are already considering the possibility of a rate hike by December, which continues to pressure the EURUSD pair as part of the forecast.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate fell towards the key support area, where buyers have so far managed to restrain further downward movement. However, selling pressure remains, increasing the risk of a continued decline. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a rebound from the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel, followed by a bearish momentum towards 1.1535.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator has consolidated below the support line and formed a bearish crossover, indicating a high probability of a further decline. A breakout below the lower boundary of the descending channel, with the price consolidating below the 1.1580 level, would be an additional sell signal for the EURUSD pair.

An alternative scenario suggests a renewed bullish correction if the price breaks above the upper boundary of the short-term bearish channel and consolidates above 1.1695. In this case, the likelihood of a stronger upward momentum and continued growth will increase.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with a moderate downward bias
• Key resistance levels: 1.1695 and 1.1775
• Key support levels: 1.1655 and 1.1505

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and firm consolidation below the 1.1655 support level would create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1535
• Stop Loss: 1.1685

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a breakout of the 1.1680 level would indicate increased bullish pressure and growth towards 1.1735.

• Take Profit: 1.1735
• Stop Loss: 1.1635

Risk factors

The main risks to the EURUSD downside scenario remain a possible breakout above the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel and consolidation above the 1.1695 level, which could lead to a bullish correction. An additional risk factor is the continued support from buyers at 1.1655, which may restrain selling pressure and prevent a downward move towards the 1.1535 and 1.1495 targets.

Summary

EURUSD technical analysis indicates continued downward pressure and a high probability of a further decline towards 1.1535 if the price remains below the 1.1695 resistance level, while increased expectations of tight Federal Reserve policy and rising inflation risks in the US continue to support the US dollar and pressure the currency pair.

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