EURUSD has become hostage to news and data: what comes next

The EURUSD pair slipped to 1.1644, with everyone awaiting positive news from the Middle East and the Fed minutes. Discover more in our analysis for 19 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is reacting sensitively to the external backdrop and the state of US inflation
• The market needs good news from the Middle East
• EURUSD forecast for 19 May 2026: 1.1610

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is once again heading down towards 1.1644 on Tuesday after a local recovery. Overnight, pressure on the US currency came from growing optimism around a possible agreement between the US and Iran. This eased concerns about inflation and reduced demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

US President Donald Trump said that he had suspended the strike on Iran planned for Tuesday following appeals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. The countries in the region believe that Washington and Tehran are still capable of reaching an agreement.

Before the correction, the dollar had been rising actively amid a jump in oil prices and accelerating inflation in the US. These factors caused the market to almost completely abandon expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2026 and intensified discussion of a possible rate hike before the end of the year.

Investors are now turning their attention to the publication of the FOMC minutes and preliminary US PMI data. The market expects new signals about the state of the economy and the further prospects for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

The EURUSD forecast is negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair remains under pressure after a confident decline from the 1.1780–1.1790 area. In recent sessions, the euro broke below the 1.1660 support level and fell to 1.1610, but the market then moved into cautious stabilisation. The euro remains under pressure amid a strong dollar and expectations of a hawkish Fed policy.

Quotes are now trading around 1.1645, remaining below the middle Bollinger Band. Attempts at recovery still look weak: the market is forming only limited corrective rebounds after the sharp fall. Volatility is gradually declining, which may indicate a transition into a consolidation phase after the impulsive downward move.

The technical picture remains moderately negative. MACD is in negative territory, although the pace of decline is starting to slow. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning downwards after moving into overbought territory, signalling the risk of a new wave of pressure on the euro. The nearest resistance is located in the 1.1660–1.1675 area, while support levels lie around 1.1610 and 1.1600. While the EURUSD pair remains below 1.1660, the risks of continued correction remain.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downwards
• Key resistance levels: 1.1660 and 1.1675
• Key support levels: 1.1610 and 1.1600

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1610 support level would confirm persistent selling pressure amid a strong dollar and expectations of a tight Fed policy. In this case, the decline may continue to 1.1600 and below.

• Take Profit: 1.1600
• Stop Loss: 1.1645

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above resistance at 1.1660–1.1675 would signal stronger buying activity and may return the EURUSD pair to a deeper upward correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1775
• Stop Loss: 1.1640

Risk factors

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure amid expectations of high Federal Reserve rates and persistent inflation in the US. The main risks to the downside scenario remain a possible improvement in the geopolitical backdrop around Iran and softer signals from the Fed in the FOMC minutes.

Summary

The EURUSD pair appears unstable. The EURUSD forecast for today, 19 May 2026, does not rule out a continued decline towards 1.1610.

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