EURUSD is hopeless: investors prefer the US dollar

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1613. The market does not expect the Federal Reserve to change its interest rates until the end of the year. Discover more in our analysis for 22 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair remains near the six-week low
• The market continues to monitor geopolitics and Fed rate forecasts
• EURUSD forecast for 22 May 2026: 1.1575

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.1613 on Friday, holding near its six-week low. The market continues to assess contradictory signals around US-Iran negotiations, which are fuelling concerns about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.

Tehran stated that Washington’s latest proposal has partially narrowed the disagreements between the parties. However, statements by Iran’s Supreme Leader regarding uranium reserves and disputes over the terms of passage through the Strait of Hormuz continue to obstruct a full agreement.

Investors also paid additional attention to the minutes of the latest Fed meeting. Most officials believe that further rate hikes are still possible if inflation remains persistently above the 2% target.

At the same time, the market’s baseline scenario still suggests that rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year. Meanwhile, traders are already pricing in about a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December.

The EURUSD forecast is moderately negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair remains under pressure after a steady decline from the 1.1780–1.1790 area. Recent sessions have followed a bearish pattern: the market is forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers have the upper hand. Following a breakout below the 1.1660 support level, pressure on the euro intensified, with quotes quickly moving into the 1.1600–1.1610 area.

The EURUSD pair is currently trading around 1.1615 and remains below the middle Bollinger Band. Local recovery attempts so far appear weak and are quickly met with selling pressure. Volatility is gradually decreasing after the impulsive decline, and the market is entering a short-term consolidation phase near local lows. The nearest resistance level lies around 1.1660, while support is located in the 1.1575–1.1560 area.

The technical picture remains moderately negative. MACD is holding in negative territory, although the pace of the decline is slowing. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards from the middle area, signalling the probability of a short-term corrective rebound. However, as long as the EURUSD pair remains below 1.1660, the risks of continued pressure and a retest of the 1.1575 level remain.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward with risks of a local correction
• Key resistance levels: 1.1660 and 1.1725
• Key support levels: 1.1575 and 1.1475

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1660 resistance level would indicate a corrective recovery amid a possible reduction in geopolitical tensions and weaker demand for the dollar.

• Take Profit: 1.1725
• Stop Loss: 1.1635

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.1575 support level would add to pressure on the EURUSD rate amid expectations of continued tight Fed policy and robust demand for the US dollar.

• Take Profit: 1.1475
• Stop Loss: 1.1605

Risk factors

The main risks to the EURUSD upside scenario remain the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rhetoric, the high likelihood of rates remaining unchanged until the end of the year, and steady demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. An additional negative factor could be a worsening situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, which would support inflation risks and US yields.

Summary

The EURUSD pair does not appear strong. The EURUSD forecast for today, 22 May 2026, suggests a risk of a decline towards 1.1575.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.