EURUSD strengthens against the backdrop of falling consumer confidence in the US

Growth in the EURUSD rate is accelerating against the backdrop of weak economic data from the US and continued pressure on the US dollar. The current quote is 1.1641. More details are in our analysis for 25 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• EURUSD buyers strengthened control over the market after consolidation above the key level
• US consumer confidence fell to 44.8 points
• The US dollar came under pressure after the release of weak macroeconomic data
• EURUSD forecast for 25 May 2026: 1.1730

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD currency pair has been rising actively since the start of the day. Buyers managed to consolidate above local resistance at 1.1615, which strengthened bullish pressure. The next upside target may be 1.1665.

The US dollar came under pressure after the release of US consumer confidence data. In May, the index fell to a record low of 44.8 points against 49.8 points a month earlier. The indicator also deteriorated significantly compared with the preliminary estimate of 48.2 points, while analysts did not expect a revision.

Additional support for the current EURUSD impulse came from comments by Fed Board member Christopher Waller. He supported the rejection of signals that the regulator’s next step would more likely be an interest rate cut rather than an increase. According to Waller, inflation is still moving in the wrong direction for the Fed.

Technical outlook

EURUSD quotes are rising after rebounding from the key support level of 1.1585. Buyers managed to consolidate above the EMA-65 line, which points to growing bullish pressure. Today’s EURUSD forecast assumes the development of an upward impulse after a rebound from the upper boundary of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern, with an upside target at 1.1730.

The technical picture remains favourable for further strengthening in EURUSD quotes. The Stochastic Oscillator has consolidated above the resistance line, which signals a likely acceleration of the upward move in the near term. An additional confirmation of growth will come from a breakout of the EMA-285 line, with the price consolidating above 1.1665.

The alternative scenario assumes stronger pressure from sellers in the event of a breakout of the lower boundary of the reversal pattern and consolidation of quotes below 1.1585. Such a signal will confirm the resumption of bearish pressure and the development of a downward impulse with a target below 1.1505.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward with risks of a bullish impulse developing
• Key resistance levels: 1.1660 and 1.1730
• Key support levels: 1.1510 and 1.1580

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A confident rebound from the upper boundary of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern at resistance 1.1615 will indicate the formation of a signal in favour of buying EURUSD.

• Take Profit: 1.1725
• Stop Loss: 1.1585

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of support at 1.1585 will cancel the implementation of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and strengthen pressure on EURUSD, which may trigger a deeper fall in quotes.

• Take Profit: 1.1475
• Stop Loss: 1.1605

Risk factors

The key risk to the EURUSD growth scenario remains a return of quotes below 1.1615, with the loss of the short-term bullish impulse. Additional pressure may emerge in the event of a breakout of support at 1.1585, which will cancel the current reversal structure and strengthen the probability of a decline towards 1.1505.

Summary

Technical analysis of EURUSD points to the preservation of upward impulse, with potential growth in quotes towards 1.1730, provided that the price remains above support at 1.1585.

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