EURUSD loses ground as the US dollar strengthens

The EURUSD rate remains under pressure amid rising geopolitical risks and increasing demand for the US dollar, currently standing at 1.1641. Discover more in our analysis for 28 May 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD rate has remained within a sideways range for nine consecutive trading sessions
• The market estimates the probability of the Fed keeping the rate unchanged at the next meeting at 98.8%
• Investors are awaiting the release of the US Department of Energy’s weekly oil and petroleum product inventories

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• EURUSD forecast for 28 May 2026: 1.1435

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is falling for the third consecutive trading session after buyers failed to gain a foothold above the key resistance level at 1.1655. Quotes are currently testing the 1.1585 support level. Despite the spike in volatility in recent days, the EURUSD pair has remained within a sideways range for nine consecutive trading sessions.

The US dollar received support amid reports of new US strikes on Iranian military targets, heightening investor concerns about the prospects for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Rising geopolitical tensions also increased the risk of accelerating inflation and interest rates remaining high for a longer period. In addition, the parties still cannot reach a compromise on key issues.

Market participants are virtually certain that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate unchanged at the next meeting. The likelihood of this scenario is estimated at 98.8%.

Meanwhile, oil supplies from the region remain constrained, with the main contradictions between the parties yet to be resolved. Today, market attention is focused on the weekly US Department of Energy report on oil and petroleum product inventories. According to the American Petroleum Institute, US commercial oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels last week.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is falling after rebounding from the EMA-65, indicating increased selling pressure. At the moment, prices remain trapped within a Triangle pattern. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a further decline towards 1.1435.

The technical picture remains favourable for a downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator reached overbought territory and formed a bearish crossover, signalling likely stronger selling pressure. A breakout of the Triangle pattern’s lower boundary and consolidation below 1.1565 would further confirm the decline.

An alternative scenario suggests stronger buyer activity if prices break above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern and consolidate above 1.1655. This would signal a renewed upward move towards the 1.1715 level.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward with risks of faster decline
• Key resistance levels: 1.1655 and 1.1715
• Key support levels: 1.1575 and 1.1505

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel at 1.1635 would indicate conditions are forming for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1435
• Stop Loss: 1.1650

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern and consolidation above 1.1665 would increase bullish pressure and suggest the pattern is likely to play out, with targets above 1.1715.

• Take Profit: 1.1715
• Stop Loss: 1.1605

Risk factors

Risks to the EURUSD downside scenario will increase if demand for the US dollar weakens and geopolitical tensions ease. A confident breakout above the 1.1655 resistance level, followed by consolidation above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern, would be an additional signal to reverse the bearish scenario.

Summary

EURUSD technical analysis indicates that downside risks remain in place as long as quotes hold below the 1.1655 resistance level.

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