EURUSD starts with a decline: the week will be tense

The EURUSD pair fell to 1.1646. The market is trying to focus on the upcoming macroeconomic releases. More details are in our analysis for 1 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is starting Monday and June with a decline because of the external backdrop
• The market expects one Fed rate increase by the end of the year
• EURUSD forecast for 1 June 2026: 1.1585

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.1646 on Monday. Uncertainty around a possible long-term agreement between the US and Iran is supporting the US dollar.

Over the weekend, Washington and Tehran exchanged new proposals on the draft agreement. The scenarios provide for an extension of the ceasefire and the restoration of full shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, there are still few signs of a breakthrough in the negotiations.

US demands remain an additional source of uncertainty. Donald Trump (Donald Trump) again stated that Iran must abandon its nuclear programme and ensure the full return of the Strait of Hormuz to the status of an open international maritime route.

At the same time, investors are gradually shifting their attention to Friday’s US labour market report. The non-farm payrolls data may provide new signals regarding the condition of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

After inflation accelerated, the market is increasingly pricing in the probability of one more Fed rate increase by the end of the year. This differs markedly from expectations at the start of the year, when investors were counting on a cycle of interest rate cuts.

The forecast for EURUSD is moderately negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, EURUSD continues to move in a phase of sideways consolidation after the May decline. After forming a local low in the 1.1585 area, the pair gradually recovered and is now trading around 1.1645. Recent sessions have taken place within the 1.1585–1.1685 range, where the market still cannot choose a further direction. The upper boundary of the range remains a strong resistance zone, and attempts to rise regularly meet selling.

The technical picture looks neutral. The price is holding around the middle Bollinger Band, which usually points to the absence of a clear trend. The recent move to 1.1685 ended with a pullback, and now EURUSD is again testing the 1.1640–1.1650 area. The nearest resistance remains at 1.1685, while support is located in the 1.1585 area. As long as the quotes remain inside this range, the most likely scenario is continued consolidation.

Indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD is holding slightly above the zero line, which points to a gradual weakening of the previous downward pressure. However, the stochastic is turning downwards confidently from the upper part of the range and is signalling a weakening in the short-term upward impulse. If EURUSD fails to consolidate above 1.1685, the risks of a return to support at 1.1585 will remain in place. To restore more sustainable growth, buyers need to break through and hold the 1.1685 level confidently.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with a moderately negative bias
• Key resistance levels: 1.1685 and 1.1785
• Key support levels: 1.1585 and 1.1505

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of support at 1.1585 will indicate stronger pressure from sellers against the backdrop of expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish policy and steady demand for the US dollar.

• Take Profit: 1.1505
• Stop Loss: 1.1615

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of resistance at 1.1685 and consolidation of the quotes above this level will signal the development of a recovery wave and weaker demand for the dollar. In this case, EURUSD may move towards 1.1785.

• Take Profit: 1.1785
• Stop Loss: 1.1655

Risk factors

The main risks to the EURUSD downside scenario remain the publication of US labour market data and the development of negotiations between the US and Iran. Weak US statistics may put pressure on the dollar and support the euro. Another factor supporting EURUSD growth may be lower geopolitical tension in the Middle East and progress on restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is moving lower because of geopolitics and the upcoming US data. The forecast for EURUSD today, 1 June 2026, assumes a possible slide to 1.1585 without consolidation above 1.1685.

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