EURUSD remains below resistance at 1.1665 despite gains

The EURUSD rate is recovering amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, currently standing at 1.1648. Find out more in our analysis for 2 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair recovered from the previous day’s decline
• The market remains under heightened uncertainty due to Middle East risks
• Donald Trump stated that negotiations between the parties continue
• EURUSD forecast for 2 June 2026: 1.1530

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is recovering after dipping a day earlier. The euro is bolstered by weaker demand for the US dollar after the markets reacted sharply to reports from Iranian media about Tehran ending all contacts with Washington. Additional investor concern came from statements about Iran’s intention to block the Strait of Hormuz completely, which intensified geopolitical tensions and increased uncertainty in global markets. However, despite the EURUSD’s rise, the currency pair remains below the key 1.1665 resistance level.

Earlier, market participants had expected lower risks amid rumours of a possible agreement between the US and Iran. However, the latest reports showed that the situation is still far from being resolved. At the same time, US President Donald Trump stated that the negotiation process is continuing, which is currently preventing a further deterioration in investor sentiment.

Expectations of tighter ECB policy are also supporting the single European currency. Market participants are pricing in two interest rate hikes in 2026, with the likelihood of the first move at the next meeting estimated at more than 90%.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair continues its corrective decline within the ascending channel, while buyers are attempting to consolidate above the EMA-65. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a downward move towards 1.1530 after a rebound from the key resistance level at 1.1665.

The technical picture remains favourable for full-fledged bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator reached overbought territory and formed a sell signal due to a downward crossover of the signal lines. An additional negative factor for the pair is the formed bearish divergence, which indicates weakening upward momentum and increases the likelihood of a further decline. A breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel, followed by price consolidation below the 1.1605 level, would further confirm the downward scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth after a confident breakout of the upper boundary of the corrective structure and consolidation above 1.1700. This signal would confirm that buyers remain in control and would open the potential for a continued upward move towards 1.1790.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with a downward bias
• Key resistance levels: 1.1665 and 1.1785
• Key support levels: 1.1605 and 1.1570

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.1605 support level would indicate that prices have broken out of the bullish corrective channel and would form conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1530
• Stop Loss: 1.1625

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel with consolidation above 1.1700 would signal an upside scenario.

• Take Profit: 1.1790
• Stop Loss: 1.1655

Risk factors

Risks to the EURUSD downside scenario are linked to a possible breakout above the 1.1665 resistance level and consolidation above 1.1700, which would reverse the bearish momentum and strengthen bullish pressure. An additional factor is the market’s high sensitivity to geopolitical news and unexpected signals from the Federal Reserve and the ECB, which may quickly restore demand for the euro and accelerate the pair’s growth.

Summary

Despite support from expectations of tighter ECB policy, the future trajectory of the EURUSD pair will depend on buyers’ ability to overcome the 1.1665 resistance level and on the geopolitical situation around Iran. EURUSD technical analysis indicates that a decline to 1.1530 remains the preferred scenario. The key signal for bearish momentum will be price consolidation below 1.1605.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold's historic rally to 4,381 USD, details the impact of the Fed's easing cycle and record central bank buying, and explores potential scenarios as the metal consolidates near 4,000 USD before a projected technical breakout toward 4,500 USD and higher.