EURUSD tests the 1.1565 resistance level amid a weaker US dollar

The EURUSD pair is correcting after its recent rise, although buyers remain in control of the market, with the rate currently at 1.1547. For more details, see our analysis for 6 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US ADP labour market report came in below expectations
• Investors are awaiting the Nonfarm Payrolls report
• The US ISM services PMI fell short of the forecast
• EURUSD forecast for 6 August 2026: 1.1685

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate has entered a correction phase after its recent rise, with buyers yet to decisively break above the local resistance level at 1.1565. Despite the short-term decline, the overall bullish momentum remains intact, and the pair continues to trade within an upward movement.

Additional pressure on the US dollar came from news of a partial resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East led to a moderate decline in global oil prices on the morning of 6 August.

Meanwhile, the latest US labour market data came in below expectations. According to the ADP report published on Wednesday, private sector employment in the US increased by only 44 thousand in July, following growth of 98 thousand a month earlier. These figures made investors more cautious ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls report due on Friday.

Further signals came from the US services sector. The ISM services PMI rose to 54.1 in July from 54.0 a month earlier, but the result was slightly below analysts’ expectations of 54.5 points. This indicates continued resilience in the US economy but also confirms a gradual slowdown in growth.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate is testing the upper boundary of the descending channel, while buyers are keeping prices above the EMA-65, indicating continued bullish momentum in the short term. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a renewed upward movement, with a potential target at 1.1685.

An additional signal in favour of continued growth comes from the Stochastic Oscillator. The oscillator values have consolidated above the resistance line, suggesting increased buying pressure and sustained bullish momentum. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by firm consolidation above the 1.1565 resistance level, would confirm the bullish scenario. In this case, buyers may gain additional momentum to extend the upward move.

However, an alternative scenario remains possible. If sellers regain control of the market and break below the lower boundary of the upward correction, with the price consolidating below the 1.1510 support level, this would signal weakening bullish pressure. In this case, the EURUSD pair may resume its decline towards the nearest target at 1.1425.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1565 and 1.1615
• Key support levels: 1.1510 and 1.1425

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation above 1.1565, would create conditions for opening long positions and indicate stronger bullish momentum in EURUSD.

• Take Profit: 1.1685
• Stop Loss: 1.1525

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel, followed by a decline below 1.1510, would trigger a further bearish correction towards lower targets.

• Take Profit: 1.1425
• Stop Loss: 1.1545

Risk factors

The main risk to further EURUSD growth remains buyers’ failure to break above the 1.1565 resistance level and gain a foothold above the upper boundary of the descending channel. Additional pressure on the pair may increase if strong US labour market data supports the USD and reduces expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy.

Summary

Today’s EURUSD forecast indicates continued bullish potential as long as buyers keep the price above the EMA-65 and attempt to consolidate above the 1.1565 resistance level. A breakout of this mark could open the way for further growth towards 1.1685.

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