EURUSD on hold: strength will be needed tomorrow

The EURUSD pair is trading above the psychological 1.1500 level, with major market participants likely waiting for US inflation data. Find out more in our analysis for 12 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is correcting slightly ahead of the US CPI data
• Inflation growth is preliminarily expected to slow to 3.4% year-on-year
• EURUSD forecast for 12 August 2026: 1.1500 or 1.1595

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate corrected towards 1.1542. If the actual CPI figure comes in at 3.4% or below, this would fuel expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy and could put pressure on the US dollar, supporting EURUSD growth.

If the CPI comes in above 3.4%, especially at 3.5% or higher, the market may revise its interest rate expectations towards a tighter Federal Reserve policy. In this case, the dollar could gain ground, with the EURUSD pair edging lower.

Therefore, if the 3.4% forecast is confirmed, the baseline scenario is moderately positive for the EURUSD rate, while the strongest upward reaction in the pair is likely if the CPI unexpectedly falls below the forecast.

However, it is worth remembering that even 3.4% inflation is still significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remain factors driving inflation higher.

The EURUSD forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

On the H1 chart, the EURUSD pair has entered a descending channel as part of a correction. The price is testing the channel’s upper boundary and may break above it. The resistance level has formed at 1.1548, while the support level lies at 1.1530.

On the D1 chart, the EURUSD rate remains in an uptrend, with the resistance level at 1.1580 and support at 1.1530. Only a breakout below the latter would suggest a reversal to a downtrend, but this scenario is currently unlikely.

If the resistance level is broken within the uptrend, the nearest target could be 1.1595. If the trend reverses, the key level will be 1.1500. A breakout below it could send the pair into a long-term downtrend.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1548 and 1.1580
• Key support levels: 1.1530 and 1.1515

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1580 resistance level would confirm that the EURUSD pair has exited the current consolidation and resumed its upward move.

• Take Profit: 1.1595
• Stop Loss: 1.1575

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1515 support level would indicate easing buying pressure and a correction towards the next support level.

• Take Profit: 1.1500
• Stop Loss: 1.1530

Risk factors

The main risks to the US CPI forecast of 3.4% year-on-year are linked to energy price dynamics, housing costs, and the persistence of core inflation. If petrol and rental prices come in above expectations and the core CPI remains elevated, inflation could exceed the forecast, supporting the dollar and putting pressure on the EURUSD rate. A further slowdown in housing costs and core inflation, however, could push the CPI below 3.4%, fuelling expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy and pushing the EURUSD pair higher.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is trading in an uptrend, although the pace of growth is slowing. The EURUSD forecast for today, 12 August 2026, suggests a rise towards 1.1595.

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