EURUSD faces uncertainty: rate expectations have shifted, but inflation risks remain

The EURUSD pair slipped to 1.1574. Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate have shifted again. Discover more in our analysis for 18 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair declined after several days of gains
• The focus shifts to the Middle East and the Jackson Hole Symposium
• EURUSD forecast for 18 August 2026: 1.1554 or 1.1600

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.1574 on Tuesday. Pressure on the US dollar persists after a series of weak US economic data releases reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

Last week’s data showed a decline in retail sales and a deterioration in consumer sentiment. However, inflation indicators remained subdued. Against this backdrop, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged in September.

The next key benchmarks will be the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Investors will look for fresh signals on the future trajectory of monetary policy.

At the same time, inflation risks have not completely disappeared. The prospects for a new agreement between the US and Iran have worsened following Donald Trump’s statement that he is not interested in extending the temporary peace agreement. This keeps alive the risk of another rise in energy prices and inflation expectations.

The EURUSD outlook is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair maintains a moderately bullish structure, although it entered a correction phase after rising towards the 1.1595–1.1600 area. The price is trading around 1.1572 and remains above the middle Bollinger Band, so buyers still retain an advantage despite weakening momentum.

The nearest resistance is located around 1.1595–1.1600, with the next one at 1.1626. The support level lies at 1.1554, followed by 1.1534 and 1.1503. As long as the EURUSD rate remains above 1.1550, the current correction appears limited and does not invalidate the broader bullish scenario.

MACD remains in positive territory, but momentum is gradually weakening. The Stochastic Oscillator has fallen towards oversold territory and is near 20, increasing the likelihood of another local rebound. The base-case scenario remains movement within the 1.1554–1.1600 range with a moderately bullish bias.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1600 and 1.1626
• Key support levels: 1.1554 and 1.1534

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1600 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum.

• Take Profit: 1.1626
• Stop Loss: 1.1575

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1554 support level would indicate increased selling pressure and signal a corrective move.

• Take Profit: 1.1534
• Stop Loss: 1.1570

Risk factors

The main risks to further EURUSD gains are potential hawkish signals from the FOMC minutes and Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, which could revive expectations of a rate hike and support the US dollar. Geopolitics remains an additional risk factor: renewed tensions between the US and Iran could push energy prices higher and fuel inflation expectations.

Summary

The EURUSD pair declined moderately. The EURUSD forecast for today, 18 August 2026, suggests that the pair will remain within the 1.1554–1.1600 range.

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