Dollar loses ground as FOMC minutes set up a surprise for EURUSD

Ahead of the FOMC minutes, the euro continues to strengthen, with the EURUSD rate approaching the 1.1590 level. Discover more in our analysis for 19 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Release of the FOMC minutes
• The market expects disagreements within the Federal Reserve over monetary policy
• The ECB may move towards tighter monetary policy
• EURUSD forecast for 19 August 2026: 1.1615 or 1.1560

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair is forming an upward wave after a correction and is approaching the 1.1590 level.

Weak employment data, moderate inflation, and declining US retail sales continue to dampen expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Today, the dollar continues to lose ground, while the market awaits the release of the minutes from the July FOMC meeting.

The key expectations for the FOMC minutes are signs of disagreement within the Federal Reserve over monetary policy and an assessment of the likelihood of a rate change at the next meeting. The more cautious the Fed’s stance proves to be, the smaller the dollar’s interest rate advantage over the euro will become.

With each passing day, the market is scaling back its expectations of further Fed policy tightening, while expectations of a more restrictive ECB stance remain in Europe. As a result, the interest rate differential is gradually becoming less favourable for the dollar.

Tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain. This is negative for Europe due to its dependence on energy imports and represents an additional inflation risk for the ECB, potentially limiting its scope to ease policy.

The forecast for 19 August 2026 takes into account that weak US data and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are limiting demand for the dollar, while expectations of tighter monetary policy bolster the euro. The main driver of the EURUSD rate today is the release of the FOMC minutes. The euro is also under pressure, as high energy prices pose risks to the European economy.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, after completing the correction, the price continues to form an upward wave as the signal plays out, with the upside target remaining the 1.1615 resistance level. A breakout above this mark would open the way for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests an alternative scenario. The pair may form another corrective wave and test the 1.1560 support level before resuming growth.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1615 and 1.1700
• Key support levels: 1.1560 and 1.1500

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1615 resistance level would confirm the continuation of the EURUSD uptrend.

• Take Profit: 1.1700
• Stop Loss: 1.1595

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1560 support level would indicate increased selling pressure and a corrective wave.

• Take Profit: 1.1500
• Stop Loss: 1.1580

Risk factors

The main risks to EURUSD growth are linked to potentially hawkish signals from the FOMC minutes and Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole, which could revive expectations of a rate hike and support the dollar. Geopolitics remains an additional risk factor: a renewed escalation between the US and Iran could push energy prices higher and strengthen inflation expectations.

Summary

The euro continues its attempts to strengthen ahead of the FOMC minutes. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a rise towards 1.1615.

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