EURUSD hits three-month high as the US intervenes in the debt market

The EURUSD pair rose to 1.1674. The US Treasury’s measures have left the dollar without support. Find out more in our analysis for 20 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair climbed to a three-month high amid the US Treasury’s moves
• The Fed’s minutes turned out to be more hawkish, with some policymakers voting for tighter monetary policy
• EURUSD forecast for 20 August 2026: 1.1685

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate advanced to 1.1674 on Thursday, remaining near a three-month high. Pressure on the US dollar persists after the US Treasury decided to expand its bond buyback program in an effort to curb the rise in long-term borrowing costs.

The Treasury said it would at least double the volume of buyback operations for securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years. The decision followed a sharp rise in yields, which increased concerns about liquidity and the resilience of the bond market.

This move demonstrated the authorities' willingness to intervene more actively in the government debt market and limit the rise in long-term yields. This could potentially improve dollar liquidity in the global financial system, but at the same time reduce support for the dollar from high long-term bond yields.

The minutes of the Fed's July meeting confirmed that some participants favoured a rate hike this year to prevent further inflationary pressures. The situation in the Middle East remains an additional risk factor. The US and Iran are still no closer to a compromise, so inflation risks remain.

The EURUSD outlook is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair maintains a clear bullish structure. After breaking out of consolidation in the 1.1570–1.1590 area, the pair accelerated sharply higher and is now trading around 1.1675, close to the upper Bollinger Band. The price remains well above the indicator's middle line, confirming buyers' advantage.

The nearest resistance level is located at 1.1685. Consolidation above this mark would open the way towards 1.1693 and beyond. The first support zone is at 1.1620–1.1630, followed by 1.1582 and 1.1543. As long as the EURUSD rate holds above 1.1620, the underlying bullish structure remains intact.

MACD is in positive territory, and the histogram is expanding, indicating strengthening upward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has risen above 80 and is in overbought territory, so a local correction or consolidation is possible after the surge. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 1.1620–1.1685 range with a positive bias and a risk of an upside breakout.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1685 and 1.1693
• Key support levels: 1.1620 and 1.1582

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1685 resistance level would confirm continued strong upward momentum and create conditions for further gains.

• Take Profit: 1.1693
• Stop Loss: 1.1660

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1620 support level would indicate a corrective move following the pair's sharp rise.

• Take Profit: 1.1582
• Stop Loss: 1.1640

Risk factors

The main risks to further EURUSD gains are linked to hawkish Fed signals, which could revive expectations of a rate hike and support the dollar. Geopolitics remains an additional risk factor. Meanwhile, the expansion of the US Treasury's bond buyback program reduces support for the dollar from long-term yields, while strong upward momentum in EURUSD continues to favour buyers.

Summary

The EURUSD pair climbed towards a three-month high. The EURUSD forecast for today, 20 August 2026, suggests a test of the 1.1685 level.

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