EURUSD rises as US hiring slows

The EURUSD pair is recovering amid weak US labour market data from ADP, with the rate currently at 1.1603. Find out more in our analysis for 3 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The main driver behind the weakening US dollar and stabilising euro was the slowdown in the US labour market
• According to the latest ADP report, US private sector employment growth slowed to 38 thousand in August
• EURUSD forecast for 3 September 2026: 1.1715

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is recovering, with buyers holding the key 1.1565 support level. The euro received additional support from a weaker US dollar following the release of fresh labour market data.

According to the ADP report, US private sector employment increased by just 38 thousand in August after a revised gain of 46 thousand a month earlier. The slowdown in hiring heightened concerns about the state of the US labour market and increased investor focus on the upcoming employment report.

On Friday, the market will receive the official US labour market report for August, which could significantly impact further expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. According to analysts’ forecasts, nonfarm payrolls increased by 58 thousand in August after falling by 23 thousand in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.

Investors also paid additional attention to comments from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams. He said there are signs of a further slowdown in inflation as the impact of tariffs fades, while higher energy prices had not yet led to a noticeable acceleration in inflation in other sectors of the economy.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is rising after rebounding from a local support level, with buyers attempting to gain a foothold above the EMA-65. Consolidation above this line would strengthen bullish momentum. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests continued growth towards the 1.1715 target.

Analysis of the Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional signal in favour of the upside scenario. The oscillator reached oversold territory and formed a bullish crossover, suggesting an imminent upward price reversal. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation above 1.1615, would further confirm today’s EURUSD bullish scenario.

At the same time, risks of an alternative scenario remain if the 1.1565 support level is broken. If bears consolidate below the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel and break below the local support level, this would signal easing buying pressure. In this case, the EURUSD rate could move lower towards the nearest target at 1.1505.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1615 and 1.1665
• Key support levels: 1.1565 and 1.1505

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation above 1.1615, would indicate increased buying pressure and a move towards the 1.1715 target.

• Current price: 1.1603
• Entry level: 1.1615
• Stop loss: 1.1595
• Take profit: 1.1715
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:5

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A return below 1.1565 would create conditions for an accelerated decline in the EURUSD rate towards the 1.1505 target.

• Entry level: 1.1565
• Stop loss: 1.1585
• Take profit: 1.1505
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 4 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD upside scenario would be a breakout below the key 1.1565 support level, which could push the price lower.

Summary

EURUSD buyers successfully held the key 1.1565 support level following a sharp slowdown in hiring in the ADP report to 38 thousand and dovish comments from John Williams, which eased market concerns about inflationary pressure.

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