EURUSD poised for another surge as markets await crucial NFP report

The euro continues to strengthen ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release, with the EURUSD rate currently standing at 1.1625. Discover more in our analysis for 4 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at −23 thousand, projected at 55 thousand
• US unemployment rate: previously at 4.1%, projected at 4.1%
• Eurozone inflation reached 3.3% in August
• EURUSD forecast for 4 September 2026: 1.1700 and 1.1600

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair continues its upward wave and is testing the 1.1625 level.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would be inclined to keep the current interest rate unchanged in September if inflation continues to cool. Following his comments, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike fell from around 63.00% to 50.00%.

Today, the market is awaiting the release of August employment data (Nonfarm Payrolls). According to the forecast, job growth could reach around 55 thousand, while unemployment is expected to remain at 4.1%. A weaker-than-expected reading could fuel expectations of a Federal Reserve pause, while a strong report would once again increase the likelihood of tighter monetary policy.

A survey of 65 economists showed a unanimous forecast for the ECB to raise its interest rate on 10 September to 2.50%. The main reason is accelerating inflation in the eurozone, primarily due to rising energy prices. In August, inflation reached 3.3%, above the 2.0% target. At the same time, economists believe the September rate hike is likely to be the last in the current tightening cycle.

A softer Federal Reserve stance and expectations of an ECB rate hike give the euro an advantage. However, today’s EURUSD forecast takes into account that the release of the actual US NFP data could quickly change the balance: weak employment data would increase pressure on the dollar, while strong figures would revive expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price could continue its upward trajectory as the signal plays out, with the upside target at the 1.1700 resistance level. A breakout above this mark would open the way for continued upward momentum.

However, technical analysis for 4 September 2026 also suggests another scenario. The price could form a correction and test the 1.1600 support level before rising.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1655 and 1.1700
• Key support levels: 1.1600 and 1.1565

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, followed by consolidation above 1.1655, would indicate increased buying pressure and a rise towards 1.1700.

• Current price: 1.1625
• Entry level: 1.1655
• Stop loss: 1.1635
• Take profit: 1.1700
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:2

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A return below 1.1600 would create conditions for a corrective decline towards 1.1565.

• Entry level: 1.1600
• Stop loss: 1.1620
• Take profit: 1.1565
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:2

The trade ideas are valid until 8:00 AM on 7 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to EURUSD growth is tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy combined with easing by the ECB.

Summary

The EURUSD forecast for 4 September favours the euro, which continues to strengthen amid expectations for the release of US employment data. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a rise towards 1.1700 after a correction.

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