EURUSD aims higher despite lingering risks

The EURUSD pair has risen to 1.1627. The market is awaiting US inflation data and monitoring developments in the Middle East. Discover more in our analysis for 8 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD rate is rising for the second consecutive day amid US dollar weakness
• Inflation and oil prices are making dollar bulls more cautious
• EURUSD forecast for 8 September 2026: 1.1653

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate edged moderately higher to 1.1627 on Tuesday, with the US dollar declining for the second consecutive session. Pressure on the US currency increased as the yen strengthened further amid expectations of more aggressive policy tightening by the Bank of Japan and the unwinding of carry trades.

In the US, investors’ attention is shifting to this week’s inflation data, which should provide a clearer signal on the interest rate trajectory ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Following Friday’s strong labour market report, the market estimates the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at around 60%. The ECB is also expected to raise rates this week.

The Middle East remains an additional factor. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher, keeping inflation risks firmly in focus for the market.

The EURUSD outlook is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a local recovery after declining from the 1.1690–1.1700 area and is now trading around 1.1624. The price is hovering above the ascending support line and slightly above the middle Bollinger Band, maintaining a moderately positive short-term structure. However, momentum remains weak, with the pair moving into a narrow consolidation range after the rebound.

The nearest support is located around 1.1595–1.1600, where the ascending trendline runs, with the next significant levels at 1.1569 and 1.1541. Resistance is located at 1.1653, followed by the 1.1681–1.1690 area. Consolidation above 1.1653 would strengthen buyers’ positions and increase the likelihood of a retest of the August highs, while a move below 1.1595 would worsen the technical picture.

MACD has moved into positive territory and continues to recover gradually, confirming that the previous bearish momentum is weakening. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral 50–60 area and shows no clear overbought or oversold signals. The baseline scenario remains moderately positive while the EURUSD rate holds above 1.1595, with the nearest target at 1.1653, followed by 1.1681–1.1690.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1653 and 1.1681
• Key support levels: 1.1595 and 1.1569

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above a local resistance level, followed by consolidation above 1.1630, would confirm a continued EURUSD recovery and create conditions for opening long positions targeting the August highs.

• Current price: 1.1627
• Entry level: 1.1630
• Stop loss: 1.1605
• Take profit: 1.1681
• Risk-to-reward ratio: around 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 9 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD upside scenario remains a stronger US dollar amid new signs of persistently high inflation in the US and further growth in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Additional pressure could come from another surge in oil prices due to developments in the Middle East. A breakout below the 1.1595 support level would weaken the short-term technical picture and increase the likelihood of a decline towards 1.1569.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is edging higher amid US dollar weakness. The EURUSD forecast for today, 8 September 2026, suggests the upward wave could extend towards 1.1653.

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