EURUSD consolidates ahead of US PPI release

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1640 as the market awaits new US inflation data that could alter expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates. Discover more in our analysis for 10 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Today, the focus is on the US Producer Price Index for August, with CPI data due on Friday
• The likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week is estimated at 60%, supporting the dollar
• EURUSD forecast for 10 September 2026: 1.1653 and 1.1709

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is barely moving on Thursday as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key US inflation data. Today, the market will see the August PPI figures, while CPI data will be released on Friday.

Weekly jobless claims and housing sales data will serve as additional reference points for market participants. Following strong labour market figures, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week is estimated at around 60%, which limits EURUSD upside potential.

US Treasury yields also rose after the US Treasury announced plans to buy back up to 6 billion USD of long-term debt, three times the usual amount. However, the measure fell short of some market expectations and failed to significantly ease pressure on the debt market.

The dollar is also supported by rising oil prices, driven by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran. Higher oil prices increase inflation risks and raise the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance. Therefore, EURUSD movements over the coming sessions will largely depend on whether PPI and CPI data confirms persistent price pressures in the US economy.

The EURUSD outlook is moderate.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is trading within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, formed in late July. After declining to the 1.1570 area, the pair recovered and is holding above the ascending support line. The price is currently consolidating around the middle Bollinger Band near 1.1635–1.1640.

MACD is slightly above the zero line and continues to give a moderately positive signal, indicating a gradual recovery in bullish momentum. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator has turned lower from neutral territory, so a local correction may occur before further growth.

To confirm further gains, the EURUSD pair needs to consolidate above the 1.1653 resistance level. In this case, the next target for buyers would be the 1.1709 area, corresponding to the August high. An alternative scenario would come into play if the price breaks below the ascending support level and consolidates below 1.1600; in this case, downward pressure could extend towards 1.1570.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1653 and 1.1709
• Key support levels: 1.1610 and 1.1570

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above the local resistance level of 1.1653 would confirm continued upward movement within the channel and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Current price: 1.16368
• Entry level: 1.1655
• Take profit: 1.1709
• Stop loss: 1.1628
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 11 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD bullish scenario would be stronger-than-expected US PPI and CPI data. Accelerating inflation could further increase the likelihood of tighter Federal Reserve policy, support US Treasury yields, and strengthen the dollar. In this case, the EURUSD pair could break below the ascending support level around 1.1600 and return to 1.1570.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is consolidating ahead of the release of US statistics, but the overall bias remains bullish. The EURUSD forecast for today, 10 September 2026, suggests further gains towards 1.1653 and then 1.1709.

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