EURUSD pauses ahead of the week’s key report

The EURUSD pair is staging an upward correction after yesterday’s decline amid a strong US PPI reading. The rate currently stands at 1.1609. Discover more in our analysis for 11 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US Producer Price Index (PPI) accelerated to 5.4% in August
• The market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike jumped to 69.6%
• EURUSD forecast for 11 September 2026: 1.1745

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is recovering after yesterday’s decline, although pressure from the US dollar remains. The main driver of the EURUSD fall was a sharp strengthening of the USD following the release of the US PPI data for August. The indicator accelerated to 5.4% year-on-year, well above market expectations, heightening concerns about persistent inflationary pressure in the US economy.

The strong data prompted a notable reassessment of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy. According to CME FedWatch data, the likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike at the September meeting rose to 69.6%, further bolstering the US dollar and adding to pressure on the euro.

Another negative factor for the EURUSD pair was the outcome of yesterday’s European Central Bank meeting. As expected, the regulator raised the interest rate by 25 basis points, citing risks associated with rising energy prices. However, the ECB decision had already been priced into the market, so it failed to provide significant support for the European currency. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave no clear signals about the future course of monetary policy.

Today, investors’ attention will shift to the week’s key macroeconomic report – the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), with annual inflation projected to remain at 3.4% in August.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate is recovering within a bullish channel. However, sellers are keeping the price below the EMA-65, indicating persistent bearish pressure. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests further upward movement towards the nearest target at 1.1745.

The Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional signal in favour of growth. The oscillator values are approaching the ascending support line, and a rebound from it could signal renewed bullish momentum. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidation above 1.1645 would confirm today’s bullish EURUSD scenario. In this case, buyers may gain additional momentum for further growth.

At the same time, the risk of an alternative scenario remains. A breakout below the local support level at 1.1585 would signal weakening buyer positions and increase the likelihood of a continued decline. In this case, the EURUSD pair may head towards the nearest target at 1.1515.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1645 and 1.1705
• Key support levels: 1.1585 and 1.1515

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A sustained move above the upper boundary of the descending correction channel will indicate the end of consolidation and the development of bullish momentum in EURUSD.

• Current price: 1.1609
• Entry level: 1.1645
• Stop loss: 1.1605
• Take profit: 1.1745
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 12 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The primary risk to today’s EURUSD upside scenario is the release of robust US CPI inflation data. Should the figures exceed the 3.4% forecast, it would trigger a significant strengthening of the US dollar.

Summary

The local EURUSD correction is being restrained by strong US PPI data, which has pushed hawkish Fed rate expectations up to 69.6%. The pair’s future trajectory will be determined today following the release of the US CPI inflation report; weak data would help the euro extend its current recovery.

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