EURUSD under pressure from strong dollar ahead of central bank week

The EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1597, close to its lowest level in more than a week amid a stronger US dollar and expectations of further Fed action. For more details, see our analysis for 14 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US dollar is supported by expectations of a Fed rate hike following a strong US core inflation report
• The ECB raised its rate by 25 basis points, with the market pricing in further tightening of European monetary policy
• This week, the focus is on the Fed decision, updated economic projections, and the regulator’s press conference
• EURUSD forecast for 14 September 2026: 1.1579

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate begins the week close to 1.1600, near its lowest levels in more than a week. The EURUSD pair remains under pressure from the US dollar, which is supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes following stronger-than-expected US core inflation data.

The European Central Bank raised its interest rate by 25 basis points last week and warned that inflation could remain significantly above the 2% target for an extended period. ECB President Christine Lagarde described the decision as clear-cut and noted that bringing inflation back to the target, currently expected by the end of 2027, could take longer.

The worsening inflation outlook is fuelling expectations of further ECB policy tightening. Money markets are already pricing in additional rate hikes in the coming months. However, in the short term, the impact of tighter European policy on the euro is being limited by a more hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve rate trajectory.

This week, the focus will be on Wednesday’s Fed meeting, updated economic projections, and the regulator’s press conference. Before that, the market will also monitor Germany’s ZEW index and US retail sales.

The EURUSD outlook is moderately bearish.

Technical outlook

On the H4 timeframe, the EURUSD pair remains within the ascending channel formed in late July, although short-term pressure on quotes has increased. The price has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and is testing the 1.1597 level, approaching the lower part of the local range.

MACD is slightly below the zero line, indicating weakening bullish momentum. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards from the neutral zone, warning of a possible short-term rebound. Nevertheless, while the pair remains below the 1.1606 resistance level, the technical picture favours sellers in the short term.

The nearest support level is located at 1.1579. A breakout below this mark would open the way towards 1.1553 and, if selling pressure increases, towards 1.1526. An alternative scenario suggests a move back above 1.1606, after which the EURUSD rate could recover towards 1.1632 and then 1.1658.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: ascending channel, short-term downward correction
• Key resistance levels: 1.1606 and 1.1632
• Key support levels: 1.1579 and 1.1553

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1579 support level would confirm a continued downward correction within the channel and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 1.1597
• Entry level: 1.1577
• Take profit: 1.1553
• Stop loss: 1.1601
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 15 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks to the EURUSD downside scenario include dovish signals from the Federal Reserve or growing expectations of further ECB policy tightening. In this case, pressure on the US dollar would ease, giving the euro a chance to recover. An additional risk factor for short positions would be a return above 1.1606, which would open the way towards 1.1632 and then 1.1658.

Summary

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure from a strong US dollar, although it is still trading within an ascending channel overall. The EURUSD forecast for today, 14 September 2026, suggests a decline towards 1.1579 and then 1.1553.

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