EURUSD loses ground ahead of the Fed meeting

The EURUSD pair continues to decline as strong US inflation data strengthens the USD. The rate currently stands at 1.1532. Discover more in our analysis for 15 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US PPI and CPI inflation readings have accelerated
• The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike has reached 92.3%, according to CME FedWatch data
• EURUSD forecast for 15 September 2026: 1.1435

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is declining for the fourth consecutive trading session, remaining under pressure ahead of the key US Federal Reserve meeting, which begins today. Following the recent inflation shock – an acceleration in PPI and CPI figures – expectations of further monetary policy tightening have risen sharply. According to CME FedWatch, the market is pricing in a 92.3% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

The ECB's recent rate hike to 2.50% is no longer providing significant support for the single currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that further decisions would be highly dependent on incoming economic data. Against the backdrop of a slowing eurozone industrial sector, this approach limits the recovery potential for the EURUSD pair.

The euro is also facing additional pressure from a new escalation in the Middle East. Attacks on tankers are keeping Brent prices above 105 USD per barrel, adding to inflationary pressure on the energy-dependent eurozone economy. Persistently high oil prices increase the risk of prolonged inflationary pressure and stagflation, which is fundamentally negative for the euro and supportive of the US dollar.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate has broken out of the bullish channel. The price rebounded from the support level, but selling pressure remains. Today's EURUSD forecast suggests further downside towards the 1.1435 target.

The Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional bearish signal. The oscillator values have formed a bearish crossover, indicating increased selling pressure. A breakout below the local support level and consolidation below 1.1515 would confirm today's bearish EURUSD scenario. In this case, bears could gain additional momentum for a continued decline.

At the same time, the risk of an alternative scenario remains. A breakout above the 1.1565 resistance level would signal waning selling pressure and increase the likelihood of renewed upward momentum. In this case, the EURUSD pair could move towards the nearest target at 1.1645.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish momentum
• Key resistance levels: 1.1565 and 1.1645
• Key support levels: 1.1515 and 1.1435

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the local support level at 1.1515 would trigger a new wave of declines and increase selling pressure.

• Current price: 1.1532
• Entry level: 1.1515
• Take profit: 1.1435
• Stop loss: 1.1555
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario is a potential breakout above the 1.1565 resistance level, which would signal weakening selling pressure and increase the likelihood of renewed growth. Consolidation above this level would further confirm the alternative scenario, opening the way towards the 1.1645 target.

Summary

Hawkish US Federal Reserve rhetoric amid accelerating inflation creates a strong fundamental driver for US dollar strength. EURUSD technical analysis indicates persistent bearish pressure, and a breakout and consolidation below 1.1515 would confirm a decline towards the 1.1435 target.

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