EURUSD tests support ahead of the Fed decision

The EURUSD pair is holding near the lower boundary of the ascending channel as the US dollar strengthens ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. The EURUSD rate currently stands at 1.1539. Find more details in our analysis for 16 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US Dollar Index is at 99.7, a one-month high ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting
• The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 92%, while the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has risen above 5%
• EURUSD forecast for 16 September 2026: 1.1490

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is attempting to recover towards 1.1539 as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in around three years.

The likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike is estimated at 92%. However, for the currency market, the key factor will be not only the decision itself but also signals about the regulator's next steps. Investors are gradually pricing in the possibility of another rate hike in October or December.

The US dollar is also supported by rising US bond yields. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries briefly exceeded 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Borrowing costs are rising amid high energy prices, increasing inflation risks, and concerns about US public finances.

The main risk to the US dollar is a less hawkish outcome from the Federal Reserve meeting. If the regulator does not provide clear signals about further rate hikes or unexpectedly leaves the rate unchanged, the market could sharply reassess current expectations. This could weaken the US currency and lead to a recovery in the EURUSD rate.

The EURUSD outlook is cautious.

Technical outlook

On the H4 timeframe, the EURUSD pair remains within the medium-term ascending channel, although short-term dynamics continue to show a pronounced bearish bias. After reversing from the 1.1630–1.1640 area, the pair fell sharply and is now testing the lower boundary of the channel around 1.1530.

The price is hovering below the middle Bollinger Band and is trading close to the lower band, confirming selling pressure. The nearest resistance level lies at 1.1569, while a stronger barrier is located around 1.1609.

MACD remains below the zero line, indicating that the overall bearish structure persists. At the same time, the MACD line has moved slightly above the signal line, suggesting that downward momentum is beginning to weaken and a technical rebound is possible before the next move. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory, so there is still no sustained signal of an upward reversal.

Consolidation below 1.1529 would confirm a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and create conditions for a decline towards 1.1490. An alternative scenario would come into play if the pair returns above 1.1569, after which it could recover towards 1.1609.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: short-term bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1569 and 1.1609
• Key support levels: 1.1529 and 1.1490

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and consolidation below the 1.1529 support level would confirm increasing selling pressure and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 1.15426
• Entry level: 1.1527
• Take profit: 1.1490
• Stop loss: 1.1549
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.7

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 17 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario is a more dovish signal from the Federal Reserve. If the regulator does not confirm its readiness to raise rates further, US Treasury yields and the US dollar could correct lower. In this case, a move by the EURUSD pair back above 1.1569 would increase the likelihood of a recovery first towards 1.1609 and then 1.1630.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel and maintains a bearish bias in the short term. The EURUSD forecast for today, 16 September 2026, suggests a decline towards 1.1529 and then 1.1490.

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