EURUSD attempts to recover despite tighter Federal Reserve policy

EURUSD is staging an upward correction after a prolonged decline, supported by the 1.1465 level holding. The current price is 1.1476. Find out more in our analysis for 17 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintained a hawkish tone, citing the resilience of the labour market
• EURUSD forecast for 17 September 2026: 1.1395

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD is correcting after five consecutive trading sessions under selling pressure. Buyers managed to hold support at 1.1465, triggering a local recovery. The euro came under pressure following the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The regulator raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% per annum. The decision was unanimous and marked the first rate increase in three years.

In the accompanying statement, the Federal Open Market Committee noted that US inflation remains elevated. The Federal Reserve stressed that its monetary policy measures are aimed at bringing inflation back to the 2% target.

Additional pressure on the euro came from hawkish rhetoric by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The regulator pointed to continued resilience in consumer spending and the labour market, leaving room for further monetary policy tightening before year-end. This signal supported the US dollar and increased pressure on EURUSD.

Technical outlook

EURUSD is correcting within a descending channel. The price remains below EMA-65, indicating continued selling pressure. Today's EURUSD forecast suggests a further decline towards the 1.1395 target.

The Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional bearish signal. Its readings reversed from the resistance line and reached oversold territory. This allows for a short-term correction, but overall the risk of a further decline remains. A break below the local 1.1455 support level would confirm today's bearish EURUSD scenario. In this case, sellers could gain additional momentum to extend the decline.

At the same time, an alternative scenario remains possible. A break above the 1.1505 resistance level would indicate weakening selling pressure and a move beyond the upper boundary of the descending channel. In this case, EURUSD could continue recovering towards the nearest target at 1.1585.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1505 and 1.1585
• Key support levels: 1.1465 and 1.1395

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A break below the local support level followed by consolidation below 1.1455 would create conditions for opening short positions and signal a continuation of the EURUSD decline.

• Current price: 1.1476
• Entry level: 1.1455
• Take Profit: 1.1395
• Stop Loss: 1.1480
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 18 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to today's bearish EURUSD scenario is a breakout above local resistance at 1.1505, which would indicate seller weakness and take the price above the upper boundary of the descending channel. This would allow buyers to develop a full recovery in EURUSD towards 1.1585.

Summary

The current upward correction in EURUSD from the 1.1465 support level is a local technical rebound after five consecutive sessions of decline under selling pressure. Nevertheless, the pair's medium-term recovery potential remains limited. Today's EURUSD forecast remains bearish.

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