EURUSD holds near new local lows

EURUSD is holding near multi-week lows amid a stronger US dollar and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The current price is 1.1436. Find out more in our analysis for 23 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US Dollar Index is near 100.5, an eight-week high, following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials
• The market estimates the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October at around 54%
• EURUSD forecast for 23 September 2026: 1.1430 and 1.1400

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD continues to decline as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have strengthened expectations of further interest-rate increases. This is weighing on EURUSD and limiting attempts by the euro to recover.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that the effects of inflation shocks could persist for a prolonged period and that elevated price pressures risk becoming entrenched. Boston Fed President Susan Collins also supported last week's rate hike and noted the risk of inflation remaining above the 2% target.

The market currently estimates the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October at 54%. Expectations of further tightening continue to support the US dollar through higher yields and widen the gap in the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.

However, the geopolitical backdrop has eased somewhat. Oil is falling for a sixth consecutive session after President Donald Trump described a meeting between US representatives and the Iranian side as "very good". Lower oil prices reduce inflation risks and demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, although this is not yet enough to trigger an upward reversal in EURUSD.

The EURUSD outlook is moderately bearish.

Technical outlook

On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD maintains a pronounced bearish structure. After breaking below the 1.1467 area, the pair continued to decline and is now trading near the lower Bollinger Band. A series of lower highs and lower lows confirms the sellers' sustained advantage.

MACD remains below the zero line, while the indicator line is below the signal line, indicating that bearish momentum persists. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the lower part of the neutral zone, so there is still no clear signal of a sustained upward reversal.

The nearest support is located around 1.1430. A breakout below this level would create conditions for a further decline towards 1.1400 and then the 1.1375 area. To weaken the bearish structure, EURUSD needs to return above 1.1467. In this case, the next recovery target would be 1.1489.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1467 and 1.1489
• Key support levels: 1.1430 and 1.1400

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the local support level at 1.1430 would confirm the continuation of bearish momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 1.1436
• Entry level: 1.1428
• Take Profit: 1.1400
• Stop Loss: 1.1442
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 24 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario would be a further easing of inflationary pressure amid falling oil prices. This could reduce expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and trigger a correction in the US dollar. A technical signal of weakening selling pressure would be a return above 1.1467, which would increase the probability of a move towards 1.1489.

Summary

EURUSD remains under pressure from a strong US dollar and retains a bearish bias. Today's EURUSD forecast for 23 September 2026 does not rule out a decline towards 1.1430 and then 1.1400.

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